Small-scale farming in semi-arid areas: Livelihood dynamics between 1997 and 2010 in Laikipia, Kenya Anne Ulrich a, * , Chinwe Ifejika Speranza b, c , Paul Roden a , Boniface Kiteme c , Urs Wiesmann b , Marcus Nüsser a a Department of Geography, South Asia Institute (SAI), Heidelberg University, Im Neuenheimer Feld 330, 69120 Heidelberg, Germany b Centre for Development and Environment (CDE), University of Bern, Hallerstrasse 10, 3012 Bern, Switzerland c Centre for Training and Integrated Research in Arid and Semi-Arid Land Development (CETRAD), P.O. Box 144 e 10400, Nanyuki, Kenya Keywords: Livelihood Rural development Asset portfolio Bi-temporal analysis Kenya Laikipia abstract The rural population of semi-arid lands in Kenya face multiple challenges that result from population growth, poor markets, land use and climatic changes. In particular, subsistence oriented farmers face various risks and opportunities in their attempt to secure their livelihoods. This paper presents an analysis on how livelihood assets and strategies of smallholders in Laikipia County, Kenya, have changed within the last decade and discusses the implications for development interventions. The analysis is based on bi-temporal data from 170 semi-structured household interviews in 1997 and a follow-up survey of 30 households conducted in 2010. Well-being indicators were developed and livelihood portfolios compared. The results show a striking persistence in low asset endowment for the majority of smallholders from an aggregated perspective, whereas transitions into and out of better livelihood conditions become evident from a household perspective. The investment in, and accumulation of, conventional buffer or productive assets, such as grain stocks, livestock or land, does not shield households from adverse shocks and stresses as smallholders were shown to easily slip back into poverty. Household portfolios display particular constraints for smallholders in expanding natural resource related activities and a substantial decrease in livestock numbers. While off-farm activities could possibly increase well-being, the prevailing low income levels and high insecurity for the majority who are engaged in off-farm employment, limits the ability to increase livelihood assets in the area. Ó 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1. Introduction Securing rural livelihoods and well-being in the rural areas of Africa continues to be challenged by dynamic socio-ecological conditions and low adaptive capacities (Misselhorn, 2005; Lay et al., 2008; Thornton et al., 2010). Poverty reduction thus remains one of the greatest challenges for development and has been revived as a central topic in the development discourse as well as in the Kenyan national agenda and in the Millennium Development Goals (GoK, 2007). Half of the Kenyan population is estimated to live below the poverty line, which for the rural areas was set at an equivalent of US$ 0.68 per day (UNDP, 2006). The population in arid and semi-arid lands, which constitute 80 per cent of Kenya, is among the most vulnerable. They face new challenges as a result of rapid changes in an array of socio-economic, political and ecological conditions. Massive population growth since independence in 1963 as well as land use changes and land degradation respectively have led to dramatic socio-ecological changes (Kiteme et al., 2008). Livelihoods are further exposed to economic liberalization, new governance structures, food insecurity and ethnic conflicts among others. The expected increasing frequency of droughts and floods (IPCC, 2007) pose new threats to their livelihoods. In rural Kenya, livelihoods are mainly based on crop cultivation and livestock keeping. The smallholders are most affected by and at the same time shape their own region’s development (Wiesmann, 1998). The necessity to understand their capacity to cope with a difficult and changing environment as well as their ability to take advantage of opportunities has been widely acknowledged. This is yet again made clear with the severe drought that hit the Horn of Africa in 2011 leaving an estimated thirteen million people in need of humanitarian aid, despite early warning system predictions. Longer-term solutions for such crisis through the assistance in * Corresponding author. Tel.: þ49 (0) 6221 544398; fax: þ49 (0) 6221 545926. E-mail addresses: ulrich@sai.uni-heidelberg.de (A. Ulrich), chinwe.ifejika. speranza@cde.unibe.ch (C. Ifejika Speranza), paul.roden@gmail.com (P. Roden), b.kiteme@africaonline.co.ke (B. Kiteme), Urs.Wiesmann@cde.unibe.ch (U. Wiesmann), marcus.nuesser@uni-heidelberg.de (M. Nüsser). Contents lists available at SciVerse ScienceDirect Journal of Rural Studies journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/jrurstud 0743-0167/$ e see front matter Ó 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.jrurstud.2012.02.003 Journal of Rural Studies 28 (2012) 241e251