197 singapore 2011-2015: a tale oF two elections Stephan Ortmann City University of Hong Kong sortmann@cityu.edu.hk The electoral authoritarian regime of Singapore has experienced two very different general elections in 2011 and 2015. The first was a watershed election that allowed the opposition to capture the largest number of seats ever, including a group represen- tative constituency, which was once believed to be impossible. It had also fielded the most candidates ever, running in all but one constituencies. The latter, however, was a major setback for the opposition which had to suffer a significant reduction in the share of popular vote. As the ruling party won in a landslide, the opposition Workers’ Party even lost one seat that it had gained in a by-election in 2013. Opposition sup- porters, who had hoped to make additional gains, were devastated. Observers even saw in the election result a clear victory for the soft-authoritarian regime. This paper, however, argues that Singapore, in spite of the 2015 election, continues to be on the path to a fundamental political transformation. The majority of Singaporeans still wants a responsive government with sufficient checks on arbitrary power. The ruling party now has to be much more responsive to popular desires and quirks than in the past and can no longer act according to what it claims to be the long-term interests of the country. In addition, it is important to recognize that the 2015 election was conducted under extremely favorable conditions for the ruling party including Sin- gapore’s 50 year celebrations and the death of the «founding father» Lee Kuan Yew. Overall, this demonstrates that the ruling party’s hegemonic position is in decline while it remains to be seen how the ruling party will fare in the upcoming leadership transition amid growing challenges and the lack of a clear successor. 1. Introduction In 2011 and 2015, Singapore experienced two general elections which can be seen as polar opposites of each other. The 2011 election signified po- litical change as the opposition could make its largest gains in post-indepen- dence history. For the first time, the election had truly been competitive even though the chances of an opposition victory had remained slim. The fact that the opposition Workers’ Party was able to capture six seats, including a group representative constituency, was seen as a watershed event in the political de- velopment of Singapore. 1 This has raised hope that Singapore could be on 1. e.g. Catherine Lim, A Watershed Election: Singapore’s GE 2011, Singapore: Marshall Cavendish, 2011; Netina Tan, ‘Manipulating electoral laws in Singapore’, Electoral Studies, 32, 4, 12/2013, pp. 632-643.