ANALYSIS Estimating cost functions for the four large carnivores in Sweden Göran Bostedt ⁎ , Pontus Grahn 1 Department of Forest Economics, S-901 83 Umeå, Sweden ARTICLE INFO ABSTRACT Article history: Received 2 July 2007 Received in revised form 20 February 2008 Accepted 7 May 2008 Available online 21 June 2008 The Swedish carnivore policy goal for the four large carnivores – wolverine (Gulo gulo), wolf (Canis lupus), brown bear (Ursus arctos) and lynx (Lynx lynx) – is to ensure a minimum viable population on a long-term basis. To reach this goal the policy restricts population regulation activities, like hunting (prohibited for wolverine and wolf and restricted for brown bear and lynx) in Sweden. For owners of semi-domesticated (i.e. reindeer), and domesticated (livestock) animals this policy and the existence of individuals of these four species results in externalities associated with predation. This paper presents econometric estimates of the predation and the social costs for these four species, based on ecological models of functional response. The data on costs is based on compensation provided to livestock owners by the Swedish government. The paper also applies these econometric estimates to predict the social cost per species when the population goals of the Swedish carnivore policy are reached. Based on out our model the wolverine and the lynx will impose the highest marginal, as well as total costs on society, given the current policy goals. The wolf is an efficient predator, but due to its geographical distribution in Sweden, its social costs are less than anticipated. The brown bear is largely omnivorous, thus resulting in relatively low social costs. © 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. Keywords: Carnivores Predation Costs Economics 1. Introduction The conservation of large carnivores entails significant costs. Some costs are obvious, such as predation on domesticated, or semi-domesticated, animals such as sheep (Ovis aries) or reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) (Bjärvall and Franzén, 1990). However, predation on wild ungulates can also represent a social cost to the extent that these ungulates are attractive hunting game. Further, carnivores are known to attack and kill hunting dogs. Species with these features can be characterized as both environmental ‘bads’ and ‘goods’, to the extent that there also exists a willingness-to-pay to preserve them (Bostedt, 1999). Apart from carnivores interesting examples include wild pigs (Tisdell, 1982) and elephants (Bandara and Tisdell, 2003, 2004). The four so-called “large carnivores” in Sweden – wolverine (Gulo gulo), wolf (Canis lupus), brown bear (Ursus arctos) and lynx (Lynx lynx) – are native Swedish species and have been so since the last Ice Age (Bjärvall and Ullström, 1995). The size of the populations of these carnivores is however only known from systematic surveys for the last 20–30 years. 2 The general trend today is that these species (with the exception of the lynx) are ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS 68 (2008) 517 – 524 ⁎ Corresponding author. Tel.: +46 90 786 85 11; fax: +46 90 786 60 73. E-mail addresses: goran.bostedt@sekon.slu.se (G. Bostedt), pontus.grahn@lycksele.se (P. Grahn). 1 Present address: S. Slevgränd 108, S-906 27 Umeå, Sweden. 2 Recent surveys can be accessed (in Swedish) at www.viltskadecenter.com. 0921-8009/$ – see front matter © 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2008.05.008 available at www.sciencedirect.com www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolecon