1 Scenario praxis for systemic and adaptive governance: a critical review Ray Ison 1 , Andrea Grant 1 & Richard Bawden 2 1. School of Geography & Environmental Sciences, Monash University, Clayton 2. Systemic Development Institute, Richmond, NSW ABSTRACT: Scenario praxis is critically explored as the theory-informed practice of scenario-ing. Our concern is to appreciate its potential in increasingly common situations that may usefully be framed as wicked problems, situations or issues and which increasingly warrant innovations that produce more systemic and adaptive governance. Our framing of the issue of scenario praxis is to move towards a realisation of structural coupling between humans and the biosphere, in which socio- ecological scenarios offer a source of creative potential for re-organisation. As part of this framing we draw attention to the need for inquiry-based learning models to complement/ counterbalance evidence-based approaches. Scenarios embody learning as social phenomena enabling transformation of a situation by mediating underlying learning processes. Scenario praxis can contribute to learning as part of generating a joint performance amongst multiple actors in a situation of complexity and uncertainty. Our method focuses on five constraining variables in the transformation of a situation: the history of a situation, extent of stakeholding in an issue, institutions and policies in the situation, epistemological constraints and contestation about the nature of the issue, and facilitation or mediation of the joint learning processes. We explore three cases of scenario praxis at the global, national and state levels to unpack what we see as critical concerns for the practice of scenario-ing in transforming understanding and practice in a situation of concern. We then consider scenario praxis as a form of systems praxis in which the co-evolution of practice-context leads to the ongoing performance of social learning. Our analysis directs us toward emergent issues for scenario praxis and implications for policy praxis, future research, governance and capability-building for ‘learning systems’ design. KEYWORDS: Governance; social learning; scenario-ing; institutions; public sector practice. ‘He was a man who saw things coming. Not shadowy premonitions before and after sleep, but real and present dangers in the daylit world. Lamp posts and trees reared up at him, splintering his shins. Speeding cars lost control and rode on to the footpath leaving him lying in a pile of torn tissue and mangled bones.’ (Jacobson 2010) ‘In an increasingly complex and heterogeneous world, futures studies can help people to recover their agency, and help them to create the world in which they wish to live’ (Sohail Inayatullah 2008).