Cities, Vol. 20, No. 1, p. 51–64, 2003  2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. Pergamon All rights reserved. Printed in Great Britain 0264-2751/02 $ - see front matter www.elsevier.com/locate/cities doi:10.1016/S0264-2751(02)00097-5 Forecasting cargo growth and regional role of the port of Hong Kong William Seabrooke * , Eddie C.M. Hui 1 , William H.K. Lam 2 , Gordon K.C. Wong 3 Department of Building and Real Estate, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Hom, Kowloon, Hong Kong, People’s Republic of China The port of Hong Kong is a critical component of both the city’s and the region’s economy. However, forecasts of cargo growth and development of the port of Hong Kong have been scarce and the findings conflict, while systematic treatments on the subject are rare. This paper predicts cargo growth and the development of the port of Hong Kong by means of regression analysis. Factors affecting cargo throughput in Hong Kong are identified, qualitatively evalu- ated and then entered into a forecast model that generates a projection of cargo throughput. Based on the cargo throughput forecast, and an assessment of the Pearl River Delta (the hinter- land of the port), the future role of the port is postulated. Further, the current cargo forecast is compared to the official forecast by the Port and Maritime Board, on which policy decisions are based.  2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. Keywords: Hong Kong, port cargo forecast, regression analysis Introduction The port of Hong Kong has been one of the busiest ports in the world. In 2000, it handled 175 million tonnes of total cargo throughput and was ranked the fourth busiest port internationally (Rotterdam Munici- pal Port Management, 2000). Of the total cargo vol- ume, 18.1 million TEUs 4 (over 120 million tonnes) were containerised cargo, making Hong Kong the world’s busiest container port, surpassing Singapore and dwarfing Rotterdam. In fact, Hong Kong was ranked the busiest container port in all except two years since 1987, despite the fact that fees charged * Corresponding author. Tel.: +852-2766-5818; fax: +852-2464- 5131; e-mail: bsbill@polyu.edu.hik 1 Tel.: +852-2766-5881; fax: +852-2764-5131; e-mail: bscmhui@ polyu.edu.hk 2 Affiliated with Department of Civil and Structural Engineering, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University. Tel.: +852-2766-6045; fax: +852-2334-6389; e-mail: cehklam@polyu.edu.hk 3 Tel.: +852-2766-5884; fax: +852-2766-4308; e-mail: bsgordon@ polyu.edu.hk 4 TEU stands for 20-foot equivalent unit, which refers to a standard container of 20×8×8ft. 51 by terminal operators have been the highest in the world (Hong Kong PMB, 2000). In 1998, port and related down-stream activities accounted for not less than 20% of Hong Kong’s GDP and 22% of its work- force (TDC, 1999). Nevertheless, there is speculation concerning the ability of Hong Kong to enhance or even maintain this position. This can be attributed to several factors. In line with the development of the Chinese economy, other ports of China have been expanding rapidly. As the manufacturing base is continually being moved from Hong Kong to the Mainland, the ports in the Pearl River Delta (PRD), in particular, have chal- lenged Hong Kong’s leading position. For example, located in eastern Shenzhen, less than 8 km from the Hong Kong–Shenzhen border, the port of Yantian has been rapidly developing into a major container port in the region. In the last five years, the port experi- enced a 20-fold increase in container movement and its market share has increased by more than eight times. Some argue that since total regional cargo movement is taken as given, Yantian’s rapid expan- sions will imply a diminishing role for the port of Hong Kong (Lee, 2001).