Agent-Based Modeling of Supply Chains in Critical Situations Jaroslaw Ko´ zlak, Grzegorz Dobrowolski, and Edward Nawarecki Institute of Computer Science AGH University of Science and Technology, Krak´ ow, Poland {kozlak,grzela,nawar}@agh.edu.pl Abstract. Supply chains are discussed in this article. They are viewed as intel- ligent decentralized systems that meet the agent paradigm. Thus possibility of arising critical situations in the chains can be analyzed in the agent-based man- ner. The work is focused on applying an overall methodology dedicated to the discovery of crises and support of anti-crisis activities. The agent-based model is proposed that incorporates majority of features of supply chains so that the mod- eling of crises can be wide-ranging and easy. As an illustration some simulation results are presented. 1 Introduction Intelligent decentralized systems that meet the agent paradigm [2] can be of two types: designed from scratch as multi-agent ones (operating in the virtual world, e.g. network information services, virtual enterprises) and existing in the reality as a set of cooperat- ing autonomous subsystems of whatever origin (e.g. transportation systems, industrial complexes) that can be analyzed in agent-based manner. Such systems are marked by possibility of arising critical situations that can be caused by both outer (e.g. undesirable interference or the forces of nature) and inner (e.g. resource deficit, local damages) factors. Such is the source of an idea to embed considerations about crises in the field of multi-agent systems – MAS [3,6]. As a consequence, in the real case an assumption must be taken that the system under consideration has agent-based conceptualization that can serve as a means for analysis of its operation, especially in critical situations. If the description occurs to be enough precise, a simulation (computerized) model of its behavior can be built. Results of the simulation studies would be the scenarios of crises progress. Investigation of the scenarios would lead to finding a strategy of avoiding the particular crisis or, at least, reducing its effects [9,6]. Some difficulties of crisis identification, evaluation of possible effects and preven- tion (anti-crisis) actions come from general features of multi-agent systems (autonomy of the agent’s decisions, lack of global information) as well as their dynamics (conse- quences appear after an operation in unpredictable manner). A set of enterprises which activities can be characterized as production or providing services, distribution or trading of some raw materials, by-products or market goods, called a supply chain, constitute a system that can be numbered among the discussed Y. Shi et al. (Eds.): ICCS 2007, Part II, LNCS 4488, pp. 944–951, 2007. c  Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2007