Forecasting the effects of road user charge by stochastic agent-based modelling Takeshi Takama a, * , John Preston b a Stockholm Environment Institute, 266 Banbury Road, Suite 193, Oxford OX2 7DL, UK b Transportation Research Group, School of Civil Engineering and the Environment, University of Southampton, Highfield, Southampton, SO17 1BJ, UK Received 24 June 2005; accepted 1 January 2008 Abstract This paper develops a new agent-based simulation model to improve discrete choice analysis as well as to analyse the effects of a road user charging scheme for the Upper Derwent Valley in the Peak District National Park. The advantages of discrete choice analysis are well known. However, results with these conventional methods can be biased if interaction effects are significant. The combined approach of the Minority Game, in which agents try to choose the option of the minority side, and discrete choice analysis is appropriate to deal with the problem. The main data was collected by stated preference survey. The agent-based model has four sub-modules: (1) multinomial mixed logit model for mode choice, (2) binary logit model for parking location choice, (3) Markov queue model for park- ing network, and (4) the Minority Game for parking congestion and learning. The results show that the road user charging scheme reduces car demand in the Upper Derwent Valley. The model also shows that an exemption will increase the utility of elderly visitors. In conclusion, the simulation model demonstrated that oversimplification in conventional discrete choice analysis gave significant biases when real world problems were analysed. Ó 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Keywords: Minority Game; Markov queue; Agent-based modelling; Discrete choice analysis; Parking congestion; Road user charging 1. Introduction This paper 1 improves current discrete choice analysis to analyse the effect of a road user charging scheme for the Upper Derwent Valley in the Peak District National Park (Fig. 1) with a new agent-based simulation model. A critical review of the modelling on road user charging suggested that conventional discrete choice analysis has the advantage of simplicity (Steiner and Bristow, 2000), but biases can exist due to the neglect 0965-8564/$ - see front matter Ó 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.tra.2008.01.020 * Corresponding author. Tel.: +44 (0)1865 426316; fax: +44 (0)1865 421898. E-mail addresses: takeshi.takama@sei.se, Dr@TakeshiTakama.com (T. Takama). 1 This paper is a summary article from the practical part of the corresponding author’s thesis awarded from the University of Oxford (Takama, 2005). Available online at www.sciencedirect.com Transportation Research Part A 42 (2008) 738–749 www.elsevier.com/locate/tra