Emerging Trends in US Retailing David A. Griffi'th and Robert F. Krampf Emerging Trends in Retailing The 20th century brought global expansion and inter- net retailing. Global expansion has lead Carrefour of France into South America's leading markets, Yaohan of Japan and Makro of the Netherlands into Asia, IKEA of Sweden to penetrate Western Europe and North America, as well as others such as Metro Holdings of Germany/Switzerland, Marks & Spencer of England, and Wal-Mart of the United States to venture abroad. hlternet shopping is breaking barriers of time and space. The infobahn, or information superhighway, has created a new medium through which retailers can add value by providing convenience to customers. But where will it lead? During the 20th century retail managers have had to adjust to dynamic conditions, not only in competition, but format, assortment, and medium. For retailers to develop competitive strategies they have had to be continually on the cutting-edge. Retailer executives must predict future consumer activities and desires, in order to provide higher value. They need to continue to be foresighted as we approach a new era. Where will the 21st century take us? How will cus- tomers change? Will the retail formats of today be profitable tomorrow? How will technology transform the retail landscape? What changes are on the hor- izon? Questions such as these are being discussed in board rooms and offices of retailer managers around the world. The only thing certain about the future is that it is uncertain. The purpose of this study is to provide retail man- gers with some insight into the revolution that is lead- ing us into the next century. Who better to estimate fulure retail trends than those who have proven them- selves to be visionaries within the field of retailing and have developed strategies to establish com- petitive advantages in the ever changing retail land- scape. By pooling the opinions of a number of retail experts, a clearer vision of the future can be estab- lished. Gaining Access to Experts This article presents information from a study of emerging retail trends. It accesses the knowledge of retail industry experts to provide a clear indication of where visionaries believe retailing is headed as we enter the new century. Based on their observations we can conclude that the future of retailing will be more dynamic than ever before. To gather their visionary information, a delphi method was used. A delphi study is a creative, iter- ative, qualitative technique which is a means of aggre- gating the opinions of a number of experts. The advantage of such a technique is that researchers are able to obtain the opinions of those who are con- sidered experts in a particular field through an iter- ative, in-depth dialogue format. The delphi study used to determine retail trends leading into the new century began with 20 specially selected participants who are internationally recog- nized for their expertise in the retailing field. Five participants were selected to represent each of the Pergamon PII: S0024-6301(97)00070-8 Long Range Planning, Vol. 30, No. 6, pp. 847 to 852, 1997 © 1997 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved Printed in Great Britain