1 ISSUE: 2016 NO. 43 ISSN 2335-6677 RESEARCHERS AT ISEAS – YUSOF ISHAK INSTITUTE ANALYSE CURRENT EVENTS Singapore | 28 July 2016 Assessing Responses to the Arbitral Tribunal’s Ruling on the South China Sea Ian Storey* EXECUTIVE SUMMARY  The Arbitral Tribunal’s ruling is a major milestone in the development of the South China Sea dispute. It not only represents a sweeping victory for the Philippines, and a decisive defeat for China, but also has significant legal, strategic and geopolitical implications for countries across the Asia-Pacific region.  Southeast Asian responses—including from the Philippines—have been cautious and measured, while China has angrily rejected the ruling.  Philippine President Duterte must now chart a course which preserves its maritime rights and interests but does not alienate the Filipino people, the US or China.  Tensions might ebb if China adopts a flexible and accommodating approach to the dispute, but will rise if it decides to defy the ruling and bolsters its military presence in the South China Sea. Certain Chinese responses could increase the risk of a confrontation between US and Chinese military forces.  The ruling is likely to put ASEAN unity over the South China Sea under strain at a series of upcoming meetings. * Ian Storey is Senior Fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute and Editor of Contemporary Southeast Asia.