International Journal of Information and Computer Science, 2012, 1: 98-105 - 87 - Published Online August 2012 www.iji-cs.org A Fuzzy-Neural-Monte Carlo Method to Estimate Online Content Delivery Cost in E-learning Hamed Fazlollahtabar 1 , Tabande Sherafat 2 , Alireza Es’haghzadeh 3 1 Faculty of Industrial Engineering, Iran University of Science and Technology, Tehran, Iran 2 Department of Information Technology Engineering, Mazandaran University of Science and Technology, Babol, Iran 3 Department of Industrial Engineering, Mazandaran University of Science and Technology, Babol, Iran *E-mail: hfazl@iust.ac.ir (Abstract) This paper concerns with an economic analysis in e-learning environment. Regarding to the virtual nature of e-learning, uncertainties are inevitable. Learning consists of different integrated factors and due to real-time structures of e-learning in online content delivery, the components cost analysis help the decision makers to analyze the system economically. Here, the aim is proposing a comprehensive economic analysis model considering uncertainties in online course delivery. The input data being the online content delivery factors are considered to be fuzzy and the processing unit is a neural network based on Monte Carlo simulation as an adjustment core. The output of the proposed neural network is the cost estimation. The effectiveness and applicability of the proposed methodology is illustrated in a numerical example. Keywords: E-Learning; Online Content Delivery; Cost Estimation; Fuzzy Sets; Neural Network; Monte Carlo Simulation 1. INTRODUCTION Despite the extensive development of the information technologies, information alone is not decisive to assure a competitive advantage. Global communication networks like the Internet enable the almost immediate exchange of information without limits of place and time [1]. However, it is not the information alone, but the knowledge and capability to assess, judge and apply these information in the process of a learning process [2]. Distance education is widely recognized as the alternative delivery system in which the student and the educator are separated either by distance or time or, in some cases, both. However, distance education and virtual learning are not new concepts, but rather have evolved from the ubiquitous correspondence courses of the past [3]. In the modern implementation, information or distributed learning technology is the likely connector between the learner, the instructor, and the offering site. Education at a distance may be as near as the on-campus residence halls or as far as a distant workplace [4]. Virtual learning is a term used to describe learning activities that can be accessed in a setting that is free from time and location constraints. Virtual learning comes in many forms, but it is about using computers to access information, courses and tools to develop skills and knowledge on all types of subjects. Virtual learning provides convenient and just-in-time access to learning programs and professional development materials. Virtual learning is learning that is enabled or supported by the use of digital tools and content [1]. It typically involves some form of interactivity, which may include online interaction between the learner and their teachers or peers. Virtual learning opportunities are usually accessed via the internet, though other technologies such as CD-ROM are also used in virtual learning. The last few years have seen a wave of digital tools and content being designed to facilitate the learning process [5]. Virtual learning enables different types of learning activities from those that rely on traditional teaching modes (e.g. the face-to-face lecture, tutorial or lab), and traditional media (e.g. books). It is increasingly used to support campus-based courses, and is bringing new dimensions to distance education [6]. Here, we propose a model to evaluate economic aspects of e-learning considering the uncertain parameters in online content delivery. Any e-learning is configured integrating a set of factors for online interaction. To evaluate the e-learning from cost view point, the factors should be assessed. Due to uncertainty in the status of the factors, an integrated system is designed to control the uncertainty and do the cost estimation computations. 2. LITERATURE REVIEW For comparing the e-learning system and traditional learning system, two comprehensive studies were illustrated. Mahdavi et al. [7] compared traditional system with virtual educational system statistically in Iran. By the means of economical equations and statistical analysis they illustrated an in depth survey. They illustrated the best option for