Transport Reviews, Vol. 25, No. 6, 691–717, November 2005 0144-1647 print/1464-5327 online/05/060691-27 © 2005 Taylor & Francis DOI: 10.1080/01441640500360951 Climate Change Mitigation and Transport in Developing Nations LLOYD WRIGHT* and LEWIS FULTON** *The Bartlett School of Planning, University College London, London, UK **United Nations Environment Programme (formerly International Energy Agency), Nairobi, Kenya Taylor and Francis Ltd TTRV_A_136078.sgm (Received 15 March 2005; revised 17 June 2005; accepted 20 July 2005) 10.1080/01441640500360951 Transport Reviews 0144-1647 (print)/1464-5327 (online) Original Article 2005 Taylor & Francis 00 0000002005 LloydWright lfwright@usa.net ABSTRACT Emissions from the transport sector represent the fastest growing source of greenhouse gas emissions. There is little prospect that this situation will be resolved with a single technological fix. As developing nations quickly move to catch up with the motor- ization levels of developed nations, the sheer number of private vehicles may overwhelm any advances made by cleaner fuels. By 2030, there is projected to be more vehicles in the developing world than in developed nations. Despite the growth in developing-nation transport emissions, the sector has produced relatively few mitigation projects within the mechanisms of the Kyoto Protocol. However, a few developing cities, such as Bogota, Colombia, have demonstrated innovation in low-cost solutions to reducing emissions. This research employs scenario analysis to examine the size and cost of potential emission reduction options from the urban transport sector of developing nations. In particular, the analysis compares the cost of greenhouse gas emission reductions from fuel technology options to reductions from measures promoting mode shifting. This comparative analysis indicates that a diversified package of measures with an emphasis on mode shifting is likely to be the most cost-effective means to greenhouse gas emission reductions. Introduction The spectre of rapidly growing private vehicle ownership and usage in developing nations casts a worrying shadow over the projected course of global greenhouse gas emissions. If such nations follow the same path of automobile dependence as developed nations, there is little that technological advances can offer to offset such a monumental increase in motorization and its subsequent emissions. The result- ing emissions from millions of new vehicles will simply overwhelm the reductions achieved through improved fuel and propulsion technologies. However, most developing-nation cities still possess the basis for a more sustainable future. Public transport and non-motorized transport (walking and cycling) still command a dominant share of travel in developing cities. Unfortu- nately, the quality of these modes is often quite poor with regard to security, comfort, convenience and prestige. The sum effect of inadequate public transport Correspondence Address: Lloyd Wright, University College London, London, UK. Email: lfwright@usa.net