The coming sustainable energy transition: History, strategies, and outlook Barry D. Solomon a,n , Karthik Krishna b a Department of Social Sciences, Michigan Technological University, 1400 Townsend Drive, Houghton, MI 49931-1295, USA b AMI & Advanced Technology Program Development, Colorado Springs Utilities, 111S, Cascade Avenue, Colorado Springs, CO 80903, USA article info Article history: Received 29 November 2010 Accepted 5 September 2011 Available online 22 September 2011 Keywords: Energy efficiency Energy transition Smart Grid abstract Facing global climate change and scarce petroleum supplies, the world must switch to sustainable energy systems. While historical transitions between major energy sources have occurred, most of these shifts lasted over a century or longer and were stimulated by resource scarcity, high labor costs, and technological innovations. The energy transition of the 21st century will need to be more rapid. Unfortunately, little is known about how to accelerate energy transitions. This article reviews past transitions and factors behind them, along with their time frames. Three modern case studies are discussed: Brazil, which shifted from an oil-based transportation system to one based on sugarcane- ethanol (success); France, which shifted from oil-fired electric power to nuclear power (success); and the United States, which attempted to shift from foreign oil to a mix of domestic energy resources (failure). Lessons from these attempts to govern energy transitions are discussed. Several policy instruments to accelerate a transition are identified, though even under ideal circumstances a global energy supply transition will be very slow. Given the need to simultaneously implement programs in countries with different political economies, a greater focus on energy efficiency, promotion of Smart Grids, and possibly a new treaty should yield more timely results. & 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1. Introduction Since the dawn of civilization, people have struggled to find and utilize energy resources to meet their basic requirements for food, warmth, shelter, and other needs. These sources have included the sun, wind, water, human and animal muscle, wood, grasses, dung, agricultural crops, animal fats and tallow, and eventually fossil fuels. Since it is natural to shift between energy sources as local resource scarcity, convenience, pollution, techni- cal innovation, cost, energy quality, storage, and other factors come into play, people are not required to keep using a particular source if better options become available. However, throughout most of recorded history various forms of biomass energy have dominated because of their abundance and ease of use on a local scale (Smil, 1983). For most of history, the idea of a broad-scale societal energy transition would have been unfamiliar as such decisions were made on a local, regional, or individual scale with limited or no coordination (Smil, 2010). Several factors may stimulate a transition from reliance on one major energy resource to another, which are interrelated. First, the local or regional supply may be depleted and shortage follows. This can occur in the case of renewable resources such as forests and various sources of biomass, as well non-renewable fossil fuels. Second, even before depletion effects become apparent, the cost of one energy source such as wood may increase while the cost of a different energy source such as coal decreases. Third, air or water pollution from energy use may become so serious, such as from coal (along with accompanying adverse health effects) that an alternative energy source becomes more attractive. Fourth, technological change and innovation may require that a switch between energy sources be made in order to take advan- tage of new technology (e.g. electrification, semiconductors, fuel cells, nanotechnology to increase energy efficiency or electricity storage, etc.), particularly on a larger scale or geographic scope. Last but not least, efficiency improvements in existing economic activity (e.g., a more efficient boiler, mill, motor, or engine) may accelerate shifts among energy sources and lead to further cost savings in the process of taking advantage of energy efficiency. Facing global climate change and increasing scarcity and expense of petroleum, the world community is compelled to transition to a sustainable energy system as well as to better manage energy demand and supply. International agreements such as the Kyoto Protocol of 1997 require that a price be placed on carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and other greenhouse gases, putting a premium on low and non-greenhouse gas based energy sources. This will require some combination of energy efficiency, renew- able energy use (wind, solar, biomass, hydroelectric, etc.), carbon capture and sequestration to accompany coal use, and possibly Contents lists available at SciVerse ScienceDirect journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol Energy Policy 0301-4215/$ - see front matter & 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2011.09.009 n Corresponding author. Tel.: þ1 906 4871791; fax: þ1 906 4872468. E-mail address: bdsolomo@mtu.edu (B.D. Solomon). Energy Policy 39 (2011) 7422–7431