An investigation of causality between insider transactions
and stock returns
Zahid Iqbal
a
, Shekar Shetty
b,
*
a
School of Business, Texas Southern University, Houston, TX 77004, USA
b
School of Business, Western New England College, Springfield, MA 01119, USA
Received 24 May 2000; received in revised form 18 June 2001; accepted 19 July 2001
Abstract
Prior research shows that corporate insiders engage in profitable transactions by trading securities
of their own firms. The main purpose of this study is to examine whether insider transactions and stock
returns have causality relationships at the firm level for a sample of 2,521 firms during the period 1988
to 1998. We find a large impact of stock returns on subsequent insider transactions at both the
aggregate and firm levels. The impact appears to be negative which suggests that insiders buy after
stock price decreases and sell after stock price increases. Our findings on the predictive content of
insider transactions for subsequent stock returns are primarily consistent with prior literature. We
observe a positive but weak relationship between insider transactions and future stock returns. © 2002
Board of Trustees of the University of Illinois. All rights reserved.
1. Introduction
There is empirical evidence that corporate insiders utilize private information to strate-
gically trade their own stocks for personal gain. For example, (Seyhun & Bradley, 1997)
observe that insiders of firms that file for bankruptcy protection sell their shareholdings
before stock prices fall and buy after prices have fallen. (Karpoff & Lee, 1991) provide
evidence of insider sales prior to new stock offerings which generally elicit negative stock
price reactions. (Lee, Mikkelson, & Partch, 1992), (Penman, 1982), (Seyhun, 1990), (John &
Lang, 1991), and (Lamba & Khan, 1999) arrive at similar conclusions that insiders are able
to trade profitably around major corporate events.
* Corresponding author. Tel.: +1-413-782-1708; fax: +1-413-796-2068.
E-mail address: sshetty@wnec.edu (S. Shetty).
The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 42 (2002) 41–57
1062-9769/02/$ – see front matter © 2002 Board of Trustees of the University of Illinois. All rights reserved.
PII: S1062-9769(01)00114-4