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Acknowledgements
We thank D. Schlo Èsser and K. Kratz for the instrumental neutron activation analysis
(INAA) measurements and I. Fahimi and L. Warr for reviewing the manuscript.
Correspondence and requests for materials should be addressed to F.K.
(e-mail: fkeppler@ix.urz.uni-heidelberg.de).
.................................................................
Annual ¯uxes of carbon from
deforestation and regrowth
in the Brazilian Amazon
R. A. Houghton*, D. L. Skole², Carlos A. Nobre³, J. L. Hackler*,
K. T. Lawrence* & W H. Chomentowski²
* Woods Hole Research Center, PO Box 296, Woods Hole, Massachusetts 02543,
USA
² Department of Geography, Michigan State University, East Lansing,
Michigan 48824, USA
³ Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, Caixa Postal 515,
Sa Äo Jose  dos Campos, SP, CEP 12201-970, Brazil
..............................................................................................................................................
The distribution of sources and sinks of carbon among the world's
ecosystems is uncertain. Some analyses show northern mid-
latitude lands to be a large sink, whereas the tropics are a net
source
1
; other analyses show the tropics to be nearly neutral,
whereas northern mid-latitudes are a small sink
2,3
. Here we show
that the annual ¯ux of carbon from deforestation and abandon-
ment of agricultural lands in the Brazilian Amazon was a source of
about 0.2 Pg C yr
-1
over the period 1989±1998 (1 Pg is 10
15
g). This
estimate is based on annual rates of deforestation and spatially
detailed estimates of deforestation, regrowing forests and bio-
mass. Logging may add another 5±10% to this estimate
4
, and ®res
may double the magnitude of the source in years following a
drought
4
. The annual source of carbon from land-use change and
®re approximately offsets the sink calculated for natural eco-
systems in the region
5,6
. Thus this large area of tropical forest is
nearly balanced with respect to carbon, but has an interannual
variability of 6 0.2 PgC yr
-1
.
We determined the annual ¯ux of carbon with a `bookkeeping'
model
7,8
that tracks the annual emission and uptake of carbon that
follow the clearing of forest for agriculture and the regrowth of
secondary forests on abandoned agricultural land. Changes in
carbon include (1) the immediate loss of carbon to the atmosphere
from plant material burned at the time of clearing, (2) the slower
release of carbon from decay of dead plant material left on site
(slash) and removed for wood products, and (3) the accumulation
of carbon during forest growth. Changes in soil carbon were not
included in this analysis, as they are small relative to the changes in
biomass and are inconsistent in direction
9±12
.
We used two estimates of deforestation, three estimates of
biomass and two estimates of the rate of decay of organic matter
to calculate a range of net carbon emissions attributable to land-use
change. The ®rst estimate of deforestation was obtained from the
Brazilian Space Agency (INPE), where data from the Landsat
satellite are delineated manually for each state to determine both
annual rates of deforestation and cumulative areas deforested for
each year between 1988 and 1998 (except 1993). The annual and
cumulative data are not entirely consistent, and we used the
cumulative areas deforested to calculate annual rates of change
(Table 1). INPE also determined the area deforested in 1978; before
1960 rates of deforestation were negligible
13
.
The second estimate of deforestation was based on a map of land
cover derived from classi®cation of 1986 Landsat multi-spectral
scanner data (Fig. 1). Areas classi®ed as deforested in 1986 were
consistently lower than INPE's 1988 estimate of deforested area.
Because the dates were different, we interpolated a rate for 1988
based on maps of land cover derived from 1986 and 1992 Landsat
data. The interpolated area deforested in 1988 was still about 25%
lower than INPE's estimate, although the actual percentage varied
among states (Fig. 2). We used this lower estimate for a second
estimate of deforestation, varying it annually in proportion to the
rates from INPE.
According to the Landsat-derived land-cover classi®cation, about
30% of the deforested area was in secondary forest in 1986Ð
presumably as a result of the abandonment of agricultural land
14±17
.
The percentage varied from 5% in Gois to 65% in Maranhao. As we
lacked data to suggest temporal trends in abandonment, we
assumed that cleared lands were abandoned annually at the rate
de®ned by the ratio of secondary forest to deforested area in 1986.
Forest
Deforested
Regrowing
Cerrado
Water
Cloud & shadow
500 km
Figure 1 Land cover in Brazilian Amazonia as of 1986, based on a classi®cation of
Landsat MSS data. The classi®cation identi®es seven classes of land cover: forest,
deforested land, regrowing forest, water, clouds, cloud shadow and cerrado (savanna).
Here data for cloud and cloud shadow are grouped together.