Journal of Aeronautics, Astronautics and Aviation, Series A, Vol.42, No.1 pp.001 - 010 (2010) 1 Predicting Design-Induced Error in the Cockpit * Neville A. Stanton **,1 , Don Harris 2 , Paul M. Salmon 3 , Jason Demagalski 4 , Andrew Marshall 5 , Thomas Waldmann 6 , Sidney Dekker 7 , and Mark S. Young 8 1 Transportation Research Group, School of Civil Engineering and the Environment, University of Southampton, Highfield, Southampton, SO17 1BJ, UK. 2 Department of Systems Engineering and Human Factors, School of Engineering, Cranfield University, Cranfield, Bedford, MK43 0AL, UK. 3 Monash University Accident Research Centre, Building 70, Clayton Campus, VIC 3800, Australia 4 National Air Traffic Services, Corporate and Technical Centre, 4000 Parkway, Whiteley, Fareham, Hampshire PO15 7FL, UK. 5 Marshall Ergonomics Ltd, 25 Third Avenue, Havant, Hampshire, PO9 2QR 6 College of Engineering, University of Limerick, Ireland 7 School of Aviation, Lund University, SE 260 70 Ljungbyhed, Sweden 8 School of Engineering and Design, Brunel University, Uxbridge, Middlesex, UB8 3PH, UK. ABSTRACT This paper describes the Human Error Identification (HEI) Technique called the Human Error Template (HET). HET has been developed specifically for the aerospace industry in response to Certification Specification (CS) 25.1302. In particular, it is intended as an aid for the early identification of design-induced errors, and as a formal method to demonstrate the inclusion of human factors issues in the design and certification process of aircraft flight-decks, including supplemental type certification. The template-based approach was chosen because it appeared to be quick to learn and easy to use. HET uses a hierarchical task analysis as its starting point. A checklist of twelve (12) external error modes is used to determine which might lead to credible errors for each task step. For each credible error a description is given and the outcome described. If the likelihood of the error and the consequences are both high then that task step is rated as a ‘Fail’. The error mode taxonomy developed comprises: fail to execute a task, task execution incomplete, in the wrong direction, wrong task executed, task repeated, on the wrong interface element, too early, too late, too much, too little, misread information, and other. HET was then compared to SHERPA, HAZOP and HEIST. Thirty seven (37) analysts were employed in this study based on a landing scenario. HET showed significantly better Sensitivity Index scores than any of the other methods, and the greatest number of correct error predictions (hits). The results from the HET validation study demonstrate that HET meets all the criteria set. It is easy to learn, the error taxonomy has been specifically designed for flight-deck tasks, it is auditable, and it has been proved to be both reliable and valid. HET is recommended for use in the design, evaluation and certification of aircraft flight-decks. Keywords: Human error identification, Cockpit design, Certification, Validation * Manuscript received, Sep. 23, 2009, final revision, Nov. 19, 2009 ** To whom correspondence should be addressed, E-mail: n.stanton@soton.ac.uk