ORIGINAL PAPER Species conservation under future climate change: the case of Bombus bellicosus, a potentially threatened South American bumblebee species Aline C. Martins • Daniel P. Silva • Paulo De Marco Jr. • Gabriel A. R. Melo Received: 26 June 2014 / Accepted: 21 November 2014 Ó Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2014 Abstract Bees ensure 35 % of global food production, but this service is endangered due to several threats. Declines in bumblebee populations (genus Bombus) have been reported worldwide. Bombus bellicosus is one of the rare cases of reported threatened bumblebees in South America. It was once widespread in southern Brazil’s grasslands until the 1960s. During that time, that area underwent increasing land use which led to a decrease in bee abundance and richness, and to local disappearance of B. bellicosus. Climate change is also believed to cause declines in the abundance of B. bellicosus. Here we used species distribution models to assess potential effects of climate changes on the distribution of B. bellicosus in southern Brazil, considering both current and future cli- mate scenarios. Our results show that the suitable climatic conditions for B. bellicosus will retreat southwards. A wax cover inside its nests is usually related to Bombus species inhabiting cooler climates. This cover enables the mainte- nance of higher temperatures inside the nest and may be deleterious for the species under future warmer climates. Continuously growing land use is the second major threat to this pollinator. The results presented here may eventu- ally provide theoretical grounds and enable practical con- servation actions for B. bellicosus protection in South America, especially given the potential adverse effects of climate changes for this species. Keywords Species distribution modelling Á Bumblebee Á Pollinator Á Climate change Á South America Á Grasslands Introduction Bees are the main group of animal pollinators and ensure at least 35 % of global food production (Klein et al. 2003; Kremen et al. 2007; Klatt et al. 2014). The pollination of crops and wild plants by animals represent one of the ecosystem services that are at risk due to fast and growing anthropogenic changes (Steffan-Dewenter et al. 2005; Biesmeijer et al. 2006; Aizen and Harder 2009; Potts et al. 2010). The main factors determining recent environmental changes and, consequently, bee’s decline worldwide, are land use and climate change (Travis 2003; MEA 2005; Tylianakis et al. 2008). Jointly, these factors may cause extinctions, shifts in species ranges, and changes in spe- cies’ ecological and phenological events (Walther et al. 2002; Parmesan and Yohe 2003; Parmesan 2006; Tyli- anakis et al. 2008). Population declines are well documented for honey bees as well as for bumblebees (genus Bombus), especially in Europe and North America (Williams and Osborne 2009; Bommarco et al. 2012; Colla et al. 2012; Bartomeus et al. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s10841-014-9740-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. A. C. Martins Á G. A. R. Melo Laborato ´rio de Biologia Comparada de Hymenoptera, Departamento de Zoologia, Universidade Federal do Parana ´, Caixa Postal 19020, Curitiba, PR CEP 81531-980, Brazil D. P. Silva (&) Instituto de Cie ˆncias Biolo ´gicas, Universidade Federal do Para ´, Rua Augusto Correia, Guama ´, Bele ´m, PA CEP 66075-110, Brazil e-mail: daniel.paivasilva@gmail.com P. De Marco Jr. Theory, Metapopulation and Landscape Lab, Departamento de Ecologia, Instituto de Cie ˆncias Biolo ´gicas, Universidade Federal de Goia ´s Campus II, Caixa Postal 131, Goia ˆnia, GO CEP 74001-970, Brazil 123 J Insect Conserv DOI 10.1007/s10841-014-9740-7