Archeological and environmental lessons for the Anthropocene from the Classic Maya collapse Douglas J. Kennett a, *, Timothy P. Beach b a Department of Anthropology, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802, United States b Science, Technology, and International Affairs, School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University, Washington, DC 20057, United States 1. Introduction Global warming and environmental change are unintended consequences of fossil-fuel burning and large-scale landuse change that have increased the concentration of ‘‘greenhouse’’ gases in the earth’s atmosphere (CO 2 by 30%; CH 4 by over 100%; Crutzen, 2002). These atmospheric changes follow an upward trend in anthropogenically induced CO 2 and CH 4 evident in polar ice starting in the late 18th century that is coincident with increased reliance on fossil fuels and rapidly expanding global populations. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects high confidence of global warming in the range of 1.5–4.5 8C based on a doubling of atmospheric CO 2 (IPCC, 2013, Working Group I) likely within the next century. There are many likely negative impacts, such as sea-level rise. Increases in average global temperatures are also linked to extremes in the earth’s hydrological cycle (e.g., drought and floods) that undermine food security and have major implications for human health, welfare, and societal infrastructure (Patz et al., 2005; IPCC, 2007, Working Group II), though we still do not know how global warming would affect some of the big climate influences like hurricanes and ENSO. The middle and upper ends of the range (the likely 4.5 8C and very unlikely levels of 6 8C or above, IPCC, 2013) potentially put our social, economic, and political systems at risk because they are inter-connected and certainly vulnerable to economic and environmental shocks. The ‘‘Anthropocene’’ – originally defined as the last three centuries of human domination of earth’s ecosystems (Crutzen, 2002) – brings focus to the acute nature of these problems, the era’s rareness in the geological record, and the need for collective political action to build a more environmen- tally stable future. Lessons from our past embedded in the archeological and historical records indicate that the unintended consequences of human action have influenced environmental productivity and destabilized sociopolitical systems before. This does not reduce the dire significance of the anthropogenic changes to the earth’s Anthropocene xxx (2014) xxx–xxx A R T I C L E I N F O Article history: Received 18 June 2013 Received in revised form 8 December 2013 Accepted 10 December 2013 Keywords: Agriculture Deforestation Erosion Climate change Warfare Political failure A B S T R A C T The original formulation of the ‘‘Anthropocene’’ emphasized the global environmental change resulting from expanding human populations and fossil fuel burning since the industrial revolution of the late 18th century. Politically, the message is that scientists and engineers should work toward an internationally accepted sustainable future. This assumes, and is dependent upon, maintaining the integrity of our increasingly interconnected social, economic, and political systems worldwide. Anthropogenic environmental change and degradation (e.g., global warming, sea-level rise, erosion) within the context of the Anthropocene has the potential to displace populations, undermine food security and human health, stimulate conflict, and destabilize social, economic and political systems. Ultimately, we do not know if our political systems could withstand these forces or whether degradation would lead to increased war and further environmental degradation. We can, however, study the complex processes of political collapse retrospectively in the archeological and historical records. In this paper, we examine one such predecessor in world history, the widespread collapse of Classic Maya polities within the context of anthropogenic and climate-driven environmental change between AD 600 and 1000. We conclude that the staggered collapse of inter-connected and rigidly organized political centers ultimately resulted from multiple drivers including anthropogenic and climate-driven environmental change. Any way one looks at Maya history suggests a precursor toward the Anthropocene: greatly changed forests and soils, water management and food production, population increase and aggregation, and even alteration of local hydrology and climate caused by deforestation and wetland manipulation. ß 2013 Elsevier Ltd All rights reserved. * Corresponding author. Tel.: +1 814 863 4575. E-mail address: djk23@psu.edu (D.J. Kennett). G Model ANCENE-22; No. of Pages 13 Please cite this article in press as: Kennett, D.J., Beach, T.P., Archeological and environmental lessons for the Anthropocene from the Classic Maya collapse. 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