Travel behavior within CanadaÕs older population: a cohort analysis K. Bruce Newbold * , Darren M. Scott, Jamie E.L. Spinney, Pavlos Kanaroglou, Antonio Pa ´ez School of Geography and Geology, McMaster University, 1280 Main Street West, Hamilton, ON, Canada L8S 4K1 Abstract TheunprecedenteddemographicchangeoftheagingCanadiansocietyhasraisednumerousquestions,includingtheprovisionof health care and the national pension plan to an increasingly large older population. Surprisingly, however, there is little Canadian literature regarding the travel behavior of its older population, an oversight that this paper addresses. Using the 1986, 1992, and 1998GeneralSocialSurveysandpseudo-cohortmethods,thispaperaddresseschangingdrivingbehavioramongolderCanadians, andcomparesthe ÔoldÕ and Ôtransitional oldÕ toyounger-agedcohorts.ResultsindicatethatwhileolderCanadiansundertakefewer trips,andtravelfordifferentreasonsthanthoseinthelaborforce,theirrelianceupontheprivateautomobilefortransportationisno lesssignificant.Specifically,wedemonstratethatthenumberoftripsbycarwitholderdriversincreaseoverthestudyperiodasthe population ages. Ó 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Keywords: Canada; Older population; Travel behavior 1. Introduction Forty years ago, the median age of the Canadian population was 25 years. With the median age of the Canadian population now exceeding 35 years, and expectedtoreach45yearswithinthenextthreedecades, there is little doubt that CanadaÕs population is aging. Driven by the aging of the baby boom generation, greater life expectancies, and historically low fertility rates, approximately one in five Canadians will be at least 65 years old by 2021 (Statistics Canada, 2003). Moreover,theproportionoftheadultsaged80andover (whathasbeenreferredtoasthe ÔoldÕ old)isprojectedto increase from approximately 3% in 2001 to 6% by 2021 (Statistics Canada, 2003). At the same time, CanadaÕs older population is healthier, more affluent, and gener- ally more mobile than earlier generations (Chen and Millar, 2000; Manual and Schultz, 2001), leading to potentially greater demand for social and leisure activi- ties,manyofwhichwillinvolvethepersonalautomobile as the primary source of transportation. Thestatementofdemographicfactsandtheunprece- dentedchangesinthestructureofCanadiansociety,and societies elsewhere in the developed world, immediately raise questions about the implications of this demo- graphic change. While Canadian policy makers have long recognized the importance of an aging population withrespecttoCanadaÕshealthcaresystemandnational pensionplan(amongstotherissues),thetravelbehavior ofolderCanadianshasreceivedsurprisinglylittleatten- tion. This is not true for other nations. In the United States,forexample,theTransportationResearchBoard recently identified ‘‘an aging population’’ as one of 14 critical issues or challenges facing users or providers of transportation services today and in the near future (Pisarski, 2003; Transportation Research Board, 2001). 0966-6923/$ - see front matter Ó 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2004.07.007 * Corresponding author. Tel.: +1 905 525 9140x27948; fax: +1 905 546 0463. E-mail address: newbold@mcmaster.ca (K.B. Newbold). www.elsevier.com/locate/jtrangeo Journal of Transport Geography 13 (2005) 340–351