Analysis of resource potential for China’s unconventional gas and forecast for its long-term production growth Jianliang Wang a , Steve Mohr b , Lianyong Feng a , Huihui Liu c,n , Gail E. Tverberg d a School of Business Administration, China University of Petroleum, Beijing, China b Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology Sydney, Sydney, Australia c Academy of Chinese Energy Strategy, China University of Petroleum, Beijing, China d Our Finite World,1246 Shiloh Trail East NW, Kennesaw, GA 30144, USA HIGHLIGHTS  A comprehensive investigation on China’s unconventional gas resources is presented.  China’s unconventional gas production is forecast under different scenarios.  Unconventional gas production will increase rapidly in high scenario.  Achieving the projected production in high scenario faces many challenges.  The increase of China’s unconventional gas production cannot solve its gas shortage. article info Article history: Received 5 July 2015 Received in revised form 26 October 2015 Accepted 27 October 2015 Keywords: Unconventional gas Production modeling Resources Chinese gas Natural gas abstract China is vigorously promoting the development of its unconventional gas resources because natural gas is viewed as a lower-carbon energy source and because China has relatively little conventional natural gas supply. In this paper, we first evaluate how much unconventional gas might be available based on an analysis of technically recoverable resources for three types of unconventional gas resources: shale gas, coalbed methane and tight gas. We then develop three alternative scenarios of how this extraction might proceed, using the Geologic Resources Supply Demand Model. Based on our analysis, the medium sce- nario, which we would consider to be our best estimate, shows a resource peak of 176.1 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2068. Depending on economic conditions and advance in extraction techniques, pro- duction could vary greatly from this. If economic conditions are adverse, unconventional natural gas production could perhaps be as low as 70.1bcm, peaking in 2021. Under the extremely optimistic as- sumption that all of the resources that appear to be technologically available can actually be recovered, unconventional production could amount to as much as 469.7 bcm, with peak production in 2069. Even if this high scenario is achieved, China’s total gas production will only be sufficient to meet China’s lowest demand forecast. If production instead matches our best estimate, significant amounts of natural gas imports are likely to be needed. & 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1. Introduction China’s role as a major manufacturing country leads to a growing need for energy resources. In fact, in 2010, China sur- passed the US as the world’s largest energy consumer (BP, 2014). One concern is the high carbon nature of China’s current energy mix. In 2013, China consumed 2852.4 million tonnes oil equivalent (Mtoe) primary energy, 67.5% of which was from coal (BP, 2014). In contrast, low carbon energy sources, such as gas and non-fossil fuels, only hold a marginal proportion (in 2013, gas: 5.1%; non- fossil fuels: 9.6%) (BP, 2014). The substantial use of coal has resulted in serious environ- mental issues, including significant CO 2 emissions and record le- vels of haze pollution in a number of major Chinese cities. In 2012, China’s total CO 2 emissions were 2625.7 Million tonnes C (MtC), 72.6% of which were from coal (CDICA, 2014). As the world’s lar- gest CO 2 emitter, the Chinese government has declared that by 2020, it intends to cut CO 2 emissions per unit of GDP by 40–45% relative to the 2005 level (J.L. Wang et al., 2013). Furthermore, Contents lists available at ScienceDirect journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol Energy Policy http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2015.10.042 0301-4215/& 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. n Corresponding author. E-mail addresses: wangjianliang305@163.com (J. Wang), steve.mohr@uts.edu.au (S. Mohr), fenglyenergy@163.com (L. Feng), liuhui639@163.com (H. Liu), gail.tverberg@gmail.com (G.E. Tverberg). Energy Policy 88 (2016) 389–401