On the determination of coherent solar microclimates for utility planning and operations Athanassios Zagouras, Rich H. Inman, Carlos F.M. Coimbra ⇑ Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Jacobs School of Engineering, Center for Energy Research and Center for Renewable Resource Integration, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA 93093, USA Received 2 July 2013; received in revised form 10 January 2014; accepted 18 January 2014 Communicated by: Associate Editor Christian A. Gueymard Abstract This work presents a cluster analysis for the determination of coherent zones of Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) for a utility scale territory in California, which is serviced by San Diego Gas & Electric. Knowledge of these coherent zones, or clusters, would allow util- ities and power plants to realize cost savings through regional planning and operation activities such as the mitigation of solar power variability through the intelligent placement of solar farms and the optimal placement of radiometric stations. In order to determine such clusters, two years of gridded satellite data were used to describe the evolution of GHI over a portion of Southern California. Step changes of the average daily clear-sky index at each location are used to characterize the fluctuation of GHI. The k-means clustering algorithm is applied in conjunction with a stable initialization method to diminish its dependency to random initial conditions. Two validity indices are then used to define the quality of the cluster partitions as well as the appropriate number of clusters. The clustering algorithm determined an optimal number of 14 coherent spatial clusters of similar GHI variability as the most appropriate segmentation of the service territory map. In addition, 14 cluster centers are selected whose radiometric observations may serve as a proxy for the rest of the cluster. A correlation analysis, within and between the proposed clusters, based both on single-point ground-based and satellite- derived measurements evaluates positively the coherence of the conducted clustering. This method could easily be applied to any other utility scale region and is not dependent on GHI data which shows promise for the application of such clustering methods to load data and/or other renewable resources such as wind. Ó 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Keywords: Clustering validation; Data clustering; Utility planning and operations; Coherent solar microclimates 1. Introduction The heightened awareness surrounding climate change on a global scale underlines the significance of the techno- logical and economic issues associated with increased levels of renewable penetration into the power grid. In particular, solar power generation has recently seen strong increases in market share and corresponding growth in grid penetration rates which has lead to issues concerning the variability of the solar resource at ground level and associated ramp- rates in solar power production. These issues arise from the coupling of cloud dynamics and resource availability which is radically unlike traditional power generation tech- nologies (such as fossil and nuclear power) which were designed to run in stable output modes and have resulted in the majority of power grid variability originating from demand fluctuations (Energy, 2010). Consequently, utilities http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2014.01.021 0038-092X/Ó 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. ⇑ Corresponding author. Tel.: +1 858 534 4285; fax: +1 858 534 7599. E-mail address: ccoimbra@ucsd.edu (C.F.M. Coimbra). www.elsevier.com/locate/solener Available online at www.sciencedirect.com ScienceDirect Solar Energy 102 (2014) 173–188