ment of intracoronary stents, other new devices, and
recently developed adjunctive pharmacologic therapies.
No generally accepted methodology exists that might
allow comparison of coronary interventional mortality
rates between widely disparate laboratories and hospi-
tals. Validation of models that allow multivariate case-
mix adjustment would facilitate comparison of proce-
dural results between hospitals and operators. As such,
it was the purpose of this study to determine whether
a risk equation based on patient-related variables and
derived from an entirely independent dataset
11
could
accurately predict procedural death after percutaneous
intervention at our institution.
Methods
Mayo Clinic Angioplasty Registry
A prospective interventional database has been kept at the
Mayo Clinic under the auspices of an Institutional Review
Board–approved protocol since percutaneous transluminal
coronary angioplasty (PTCA) was first performed in 1979 at
the Mayo Clinic and includes demographic, clinical, angio-
graphic, and procedural data. Angiographic characteristics are
coded at the time of the interventional procedure, immediate
and in-hospital events are recorded, and all patients are subse-
quently contacted by telephone at 6 and 12 months and yearly
thereafter. The current study was performed with the approval
of the Institutional Review Board of the Mayo Foundation.
Percutaneous coronary interventional (PCI) proce-
dures are widely performed in the United States and
around the world. Regional variation in results and
hospital and operator volumes has focused attention
on credentialing and quality. Comparison of results
after PCI procedures between hospitals and operators
is inherently extremely difficult because of differences
in case mix, referral patterns, and the rapid evolution
of procedural techniques.
Although an empiric relation between procedural
volumes and case-fatality rates has been demonstrated
for several cardiac and noncardiac surgical procedures,
1-4
other factors that may contribute to death have not
been as well studied. An inverse volume-outcome
relation after balloon angioplasty has been reported in
some
5-7
but not all
8-11
series. A recent report extended
these observations to patients undergoing stent deploy-
ment.
12
However, most reports antedate the develop-
From the Division of Cardiovascular Diseases and Internal Medicine and the Sec-
tion of Biostatistics, Mayo Clinic and Mayo Foundation.
Submitted August 2, 1998; accepted December 28, 1999.
Reprint requests: C. Rihal, MD, Mayo Clinic, 200 First St SW, Rochester, MN
55905.
Copyright © 2000 by Mosby, Inc.
0002-8703/2000/$12.00 + 0 4/1/105299
doi:10.1067/mhj.2000.105299
Interventional Cardiology
Prediction of death after percutaneous coronary
interventional procedures
Charanjit S. Rihal, MD, Diane E. Grill, MS, Malcolm R. Bell, MD, Peter B. Berger, MD, Kirk N. Garratt, MD, and
David R. Holmes Jr, MD Rochester, Minn
Background The prediction and comparison of procedural death after percutaneous coronary interventional proce-
dures is inherently difficult because of variations in case mix and practice patterns. The impact of modern, expanded patient
selection criteria, and newer technologic approaches is unknown. Our objective was to determine whether a risk equation
based on patient-related variables and derived from an independent data set can accurately predict procedural death after
percutaneous coronary intervention in the current era.
Methods and Results An analysis was made of the Mayo Clinic Coronary Interventional Database January 1,
1995, to October 31, 1997. Expected mortality rate was calculated with the use of the New York State multivariate risk
score. In 3387 patients, 3830 procedures (55.1% stents) were performed, with an expected mortality rate of 2.32% and
observed mortality rate of 2.38% (P = not significant). The risk score derived from the New York multivariate model was
highly predictive of death (chi-square = 213.8; P < .0001). The presence of a high-risk lesion characteristic such as calcium,
thrombus, or type C lesion was modestly associated with death.
Conclusions The New York State multivariate model accurately predicted procedural death in our database. (Am
Heart J 2000;139:1032-8.)