International Journal of Civil, Mechanical and Energy Science (IJCMES) [Vol-2, Issue-4, Sept - Oct, 2016] ISSN: 2455-5304 www.ijcmes.com Page | 9 Prediction of Case Loss Due to Machine Downtime in Nigerian Bottling Company Hussaini A. Abdulkareem 1 , Aliyu Usman 2 , Hassan A. Abdulkareem 3 1 Department of Mechanical Engineering, School of Industrial Engineering, College of Science and Technology, Kaduna Polytechnic, Nigeria. 2 Department of Mathematics and Statistics, College of Science and Technology, Kaduna Polytechnic, Nigeria 3 Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Ahmadu Bello University Zaria, Nigeria Abstract— Statistical analysis of five years record in a bottling company was carried out during which the production in the company was at its peak and cost has remain fairly stable (1987 to 1991). Most of the maintenance failures resulting in downtime are attributed to filler, crowner and washer, hence additional maintenance effort toward these machines can significantly cut down on downtime loses. A strong correlation is established between time lost and case lost (r=0.938, p=0.000) with a linear relationship of x y 02 . 0 893 . 2 + - = . Thus a fair knowledge of the expected time lost within a period can be used in predicting the case lost thereby making the needed adjustment in production planning to meet up required production targets. Keywords— Machine Downtime, Nigerian, Breakdown. I. INTRODUCTION A collective measures taken up by the industry in order to keep the equipment or machine in trouble free environment or in good working environment is called maintenance engineering. Operational availability of the machines is taken care by the maintenance department. The concept of maintenance was very old and no proper care was given to the machines. When machines stopped, these machines were discarded or repaired. But in today’s age, these high complex and invested machines need to be properly examined or maintained in order to increase or maximize their availability. Sidney Tyrrell[1], when unplanned breakdown or unexpected failure happens due to equipment failure, whole production line stops and production automatically stops. Therefore it would be expensive to bring the production system into running condition under emergency situation. Most downtime is partly influenced by mechanical and electrical problems. In other words, downtime over the years could partly be attributable to some technical hitches. Knowledge of the relationship between machine downtime and lost in production resulting from the time lost due to maintenance activities can go a long way in predicting and minimize the cost of production. In a bottling company case loss often occurs not necessarily from machine downtime but other production setbacks, but the most easily noticeable and valued is the machine downtime. This downtime can be minimize base on the maintenance strategy adopted by the organization be it preventive, predictive, breakdown and condition base maintenance strategy. Regression analysis and other statistical analysis techniques are a valuable tool mostly used in determining the strength of the relationship between two or more variable be it linear or otherwise. II. MAINTENANCE STRATEGIES Maintenance can be divided into two groups (a) Breakdown maintenance (b) Planned maintenance Planned Maintenance can be divided into two of the following groups: (a) Breakdown maintenance: - It is also called emergency based policy in which the plant or equipment is operated until it fails and brought back into running condition after repair. Breakdown maintenance is useful for small factories where there are few types of equipment’s. Machines and equipment’s are simple and does not require any experts. (b)Planned maintenance: - It is also called an organized type of maintenance which focused on other aspects such as control and records. In this type of maintenance, work is planned in order to avoid the failures. Other types of planned maintenances are:- (1). Scheduled maintenance: - In this type of maintenance, program can be made with the help of production department in order to utilize the idle time of the equipment