264 Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors, 44 (1986) 264—273 Elsevier Science Publishers B.V., Amsterdam — Printed in The Netherlands Seismic activity in North Aegean region as middle-term precursor of Calabrian earthquakes Enzo Mantovani, Dario Albarello and Marco Mucciarelli Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra — Universita’ di Siena Via Banchi Di Sotto 57, 53100 Siena (Italy) (Received February 24, 1986; revision accepted April 22. 1986) Mantovani, E., Albarello, D. and Mucciareffi, M., 1986. Seismic activity in North Aegean region as middle-term precursor of Calabrian earthquakes. Phys. Earth Planet. Inter., 44: 264—273. A comparative analysis of seismicity patterns in the Italian and Balkan regions iboth related to the dynamics of the Adriatic Plate) has revealed a noticeable correlation between the ~tin~ie patterns of seismic energy release in the Calabrian Arc (southern Italy) and in the northernmost Aegean region. The systematic occurrence of damaging earthquakes in the Calabrian Arc within a few years. after the most intense seismic periods in the North Aegean zone may be useful for middle-term earthquake prediction. 1. Introduction ___ The seismicity in Italy is spread out over most Pannonian _____ of the country and the time space distribution of basin earthquakes does not seem to show any particular ______ regularity useful for the planning of observations related to middle and short term prediction of ~ 1 earthquakes To overcome this difficulty, it ap- Tyrrh~ian ~ ~i,, pears~necessary to look for other kinds of evidence basin ~ ~ by following more deterministic approaches Of _____ ... fundamental importance, in this regard, is the _____ . . .. ~ knowledge of ‘structural and tectonic features in ~L-. 0” the Mediterranean region and of its possible geo -____ ___________ dynamic evolution. On this basis, one can study A .• - - c A the time-space distribution of earthquakes trying - R I - to obtain information on the connections between i~ 2[~] 3~ 4~ 5~ ongoing tectonic processes and,seismicity. The Italian peninsula roughly corresponds to 6..à~ 74~ 8uuu+ ~ the deformed western margin of the Adriatic formed margin. Symbol 5 identified the orogemc belts derived platform (Fig. 1) which is shifting northeastward, from the deformation of internal units and of the Adrican margin (Parotto and Praturlon, 1981). (6) Compressional fea- tures and subduction zones. (7) Main transcurrent fault sys- Fig. 1. Tectonic sketch of the central Mediterranean region. tems. (8) Dominant directions of motion of the Mediterranean Hatched areas belong to the African domain: (1) remaining microplates with respect to Eurasia. (9) Horizontal direction of parts of the thinned northern margin; (2) foreland. Dotted compressional stress along main collision zones. (For refer- areas indicate the European domain: (3) foreland; (4) de- ences see Mantovani et al., 1985.) 0031-9201/86/$03.50 0 1986 Elsevier Science Publishers B.V.