One Too Many: Predicting Future Alcohol Consumption Following Heavy Drinking Mark Muraven University at Albany, State University of New York R. Lorraine Collins and Elizabeth T. Morsheimer University at Buffalo, State University of New York Saul Shiffman and Jean A. Paty University of Pittsburgh Adult social drinkers used handheld computers to monitor alcohol intake as well as the precursors and consequences of drinking over a 2-week period. The within-person relation- ship between mood and amount of alcohol consumed was examined, as well as the role of individual differences. When individuals made internal attributions for their greater than average consumption, they were in a more negative mood after drinking. Individuals who experienced a negative mood after drinking consumed more subsequently. This dysregulatory process may help explain the progression from social drinking to more problematic drinking; indeed, the relationship between mood and alcohol intake was stronger for heavier drinkers. Likewise, gender and trait temptation and restriction moderated this process. The results are consistent with the Limit Violation Effect model (R. L Collins, 1993) of mood and regulation of alcohol intake. Keywords: drinking restraint, self-regulation, limit violation effect, mood, ecological mo- mentary assessment Models of excessive drinking and other addictive behav- iors have postulated relationships among mood, cognitions, and alcohol consumption (Baker, Piper, McCarthy, Majeskie, & Fiore, 2004; Collins, 1993; Cooper, Frone, Russell, & Mudar, 1995; Swendsen et al., 2000). Although these relationships are complex and varied, many of these models describe use of addictive substances as being moti- vated by the need to escape, avoid, or cope with negative affect. Tests of these models typically have used retrospec- tive data and/or experimental and cross-sectional research designs. Although past research has contributed much to researchers’ knowledge of the processes involved in drink- ing, recent developments in data collection technology now allow one to collect data in real time to better understand the unfolding of complex internal processes over time. Our past research on the relationships among mood, attributions, and alcohol consumption used cross-sectional questionnaires and controlled experiments to examine the limit violation effect (LVE; Collins, 1993) among moder- ate-to-heavy social drinkers (Collins & Lapp, 1991; Collins, Lapp, & Izzo, 1994). The LVE is adapted from Marlatt’s (1985) model of the relapse process. It describes the rela- tionships among negative mood, attributions, and drinking. In a questionnaire study, we found some support for nega- tive affect and negative attributions as predicting alcohol intake and alcohol problems (Collins & Lapp, 1991). The results of a subsequent laboratory experiment (Collins, Lapp, & Izzo, 1994) suggest that individuals who blame themselves for violating their self-imposed drinking limits (i.e., negative attributions) experience negative affect after drinking. It was predicted, but not found, that negative affect after drinking would be associated with greater alco- hol consumption subsequently. Although a well-crafted ex- periment can tell researchers much about the causes of behavior, there were certain limits on the laboratory method that may have accounted for these null findings. In partic- ular, the effects of negative mood on future alcohol con- sumption may take more time to unfold than was available within the constraints of our laboratory session. Mark Muraven, Department of Psychology, University at Al- bany, State University of New York; R. Lorraine Collins and Elizabeth T. Morsheimer, Research Institute on Addictions, Uni- versity at Buffalo, State University of New York; Saul Shiffman and Jean A. Paty, Department of Psychology, University of Pittsburgh. This research was supported by National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism Grant AA07595 awarded to R. Lorraine Collins and National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism Grant AA12770 awarded to Mark Muraven. After completion of the study, Saul Shiffman and Jean Paty founded invivodata, Inc., which provides support for electronic diary methods in clinical trials. Our thanks to the participants and to the following persons who worked on the project: Charlene Vetter, Sandy Wilson, and Eliz- abeth Giles. Correspondence concerning this article should be addressed to Mark Muraven, Department of Psychology, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, NY 12222. E-mail: muraven@albany.edu Experimental and Clinical Psychopharmacology Copyright 2005 by the American Psychological Association 2005, Vol. 13, No. 2, 127–136 1064-1297/05/$12.00 DOI: 10.1037/1064-1297.13.2.127 127