INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF MICROSIMULATION (2013) 6(3) 50-77
INTERNATIONAL MICROSIMULATION ASSOCIATION
Testing the Statistical Significance of Microsimulation Results: A Plea
Tim Goedemé
Herman Deleeck Centre for Social Policy, University of Antwerp
St. Jacobstraat 2, 2000 Antwerp, Belgium
tim.goedeme@uantwerpen.be
Karel Van den Bosch
Belgian Federal Planning Bureau
Avenue des Arts, 47-49, 1000 Brussels, Belgium
kvdb@plan.be
Herman Deleeck Centre for Social Policy, University of Antwerp and
Lina Salanauskaite
Herman Deleeck Centre for Social Policy, University of Antwerp
St. Jacobstraat 2, 2000 Antwerp, Belgium
lina.salanauskaite@uantwerpen.be
Gerlinde Verbist
Herman Deleeck Centre for Social Policy, University of Antwerp
St. Jacobstraat 2, 2000 Antwerp, Belgium
gerlinde.verbist@uantwerpen.be
ABSTRACT: In the microsimulation literature, it is still uncommon to test the statistical
significance of results. In this article we argue that this situation is both undesirable and
unnecessary. Provided the parameters used in the microsimulation are exogenous, as is often the
case in static microsimulation of the first-order effects of policy changes, simple statistical tests
can be sufficient. Moreover, standard routines have been developed which enable applied
researchers to calculate the sampling variance of microsimulation results, while taking the sample
design into account, even of relatively complex statistics such as relative poverty, inequality