Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance 5 (2015) 27–34
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Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/jbef
Full length article
Lay people beliefs in professional and naïve stock investors’
proneness to judgmental biases
Daniel Peterson, Anders Carlander, Amelie Gamble, Tommy Gärling
*
,
Martin Holmen
University of Gothenburg, Göteborg, Sweden
article info
Article history:
Received 3 November 2014
Received in revised form 29 January 2015
Accepted 7 February 2015
Available online 18 February 2015
JEL classification:
D14
D18
G02
G21
Keywords:
Belief
Judgmental bias
Stock investor
Expertise
Trust
abstract
We hypothesize that lay people due to over-reliance on expertise have unwarranted beliefs
in professional stock investors’ skill, which may be one reason why they trust financial
institutions. In order to investigate this hypothesis, survey questions were constructed
to measure whether lay people beliefs in professional stock investors differ from naïve
stock investors in making more rational and less biased judgments. Study 1 showed that
both economics undergraduates (n = 118) and psychology undergraduates (n = 72)
believe that professional stock investors are more rational and overconfident than naïve
investors, but less optimistically biased, less influenced by affect, and less influenced by
others. Similar results were obtained in Study 2 comparing a random population-based
sample (n = 178) to a heterogeneous undergraduate sample (n = 186).
© 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
1. Introduction
In many domains experts frequently fail to make
more accurate judgments than novices do (Camerer and
Johnson, 1991; Ericsson et al., 2006). It is still generally
believed among finance researchers that professional stock
investors owing to their expertise are not prone to biased
judgments (e.g. Dufwenberg et al., 2005 and Fama, 1998).
In the present study we investigate whether lay people
hold the same belief. If they do, it may be one reason why
they trust financial institutions.
Several judgmental biases have been demonstrated
among stock investors (e.g. Gärling et al., 2009, Glaser
*
Correspondence to: Department of Psychology, University of Gothen-
burg, P.O. Box 500, 40530 Göteborg, Sweden. Tel.: +46 31 786 1881; fax:
+46 31 786 4628.
E-mail address: Tommy.Garling@psy.gu.se (T. Gärling).
et al., 2004 and Hirshleifer, 2001), including overconfi-
dence, optimism bias, affect influences, and social influ-
ences. We suggest that these judgmental biases are consis-
tent with lay people’s naïve theories (Wegener and Petty,
1997) based on observations of themselves and other lay
people. Yet, lay people may have more favorable beliefs
about professional stock investors of whom they have a
limited experience. These more favorable beliefs may stem
from an over-reliance on expertise (Huber et al., 2010).
If believing in investor expertise is unwarranted, lay
people may act in irrational ways when taking expert ad-
vice, for instance in contacts with banks and other finan-
cial institutions. In support Carlander et al. (2013) observed
that people preferred actively managed mutual funds for
long-term savings if they trusted professional investors’
skill, whereas people who did not have the same trust in
professional investors’ skill preferred index funds or sav-
ings accounts. We next briefly review evidence in support
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jbef.2015.02.002
2214-6350/© 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.