Analysis of US energy scenarios: Meta-scenarios, pathways, and policy implications Richard Silberglitt * , Anders Hove, Peter Shulman The RAND Corporation, 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050, USA Received 13 December 2001; received in revised form 26 April 2002; accepted 3 May 2002 Abstract This manuscript reviews a collection of recent energy scenarios from a policy and planning perspective and compares these scenarios quantitatively with respect to US energy consumption, energy efficiency, and carbon content of the fuel mix in 2020. ‘‘Carbon efficiency,’’ a combined measure of the effects of energy efficiency and decarbonization, is defined and is shown to be proportional to the product of energy efficiency and the inverse of the carbon content of the fuel mix. The scenarios are compared on a graph of total energy consumption in 2020 versus carbon efficiency and the results used to define a set of stylized meta-scenarios that span a broad range of possible US energy futures. Pathways to these meta-scenarios and implications for US energy policy are discussed in comparison to past and present US energy experience. D 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. Keywords: Energy; Scenarios; Pathways; Futures; Policy 1. Introduction The difficulty of accurately forecasting energy consumption, which depends upon many technical parameters (fuel reserves, conversion efficiency, infrastructure), economic and social factors (GDP, prices, end use patterns), and political and policy actions (taxes, incentives and subsidies, regulations), has led to the proliferation of energy scenarios. The distinction between forecasts and scenarios is that the latter do not attempt to predict the 0040-1625/02/$ – see front matter D 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/S0040-1625(02)00254-8 * Corresponding author. Tel.: +1-703-413-1000x5441. E-mail address: richard@rand.org (R. Silberglitt). Technological Forecasting & Social Change 70 (2003) 297 – 315