US City Managers’ Perceptions of Disaster Risks: Consequences for Urban Emergency Management Dianne Rahm* and Christopher G. Reddick** *Department of Political Science, Texas State University, 601 University Drive, San Marcos, TX 78666, USA. E-mail: dianne.rahm@txstate.edu **Department of Public Administration, The University of Texas, 501 West Durango Blvd., San Antonio, TX 78207, USA. E-mail: chris.reddick@utsa.edu Drawing on survey data collected from chief administrative officers (CAOs) from the largest US cities, this paper analyzes the role of CAO risk perception. Several major questions are asked. How valid are the perceptions of CAOs regarding the level of risks posed to their cities by natural disasters? Do differences in perceptions vary based upon how threatened CAOs say they feel? Do differences in management activities, public procedures, and political concerns result as a consequence of how threatened CAOs say they feel? Do perceptions of threat align with objective vulnerability characteristics? The findings show that there is misperception of risk among CAOs. Risk perceptions influence perceptions as well as management activities, public procedures, and political concerns. 1. Introduction T he extent to which US city managers and other chief administrative officers (CAOs) perceive risk to their cities from natural and other disasters is vital to understand. US CAOs have different titles depending on the size and organization of the urban area. Generally speaking, they are city managers or mayors, however, in larger urban areas they may be deputy mayors, deputy managers, or other senior executives responsible for coordinating overall city manage- ment with the emergency response function. Their perception of risk presumably results in some form of response. Underestimation of threat may result in in- effective preparation and failed emergency management response efforts. Overestimation of threat could produce too large a response effort. Accurate threat discernment is the first step to effective emergency management leadership. The level of threat suspected will likely influence aspects of public sector activities including community relations, poli- tical priorities, resource allocation, policy integration, and public management. Correct threat estimation will enable maximization of opportunities and minimization of potential harm. Errors in perception can result in untoward out- comes. Perceptions are not facts; nevertheless, perceptions are the starting point for other attitudes and behaviours. It is, therefore, important to know how closely the perceptions of city managers regarding the threats that face their communities adhere to objective reality. It is also important to explore the influence of perceptions of the threat from natural disasters on subsequent outlooks and actions. Drawing primarily on data collected through a survey of CAOs in the largest US cities, this article explores several key questions. First, how valid are the perceptions of CAOs regarding the risks posed to their cities by natural disasters? To explore this question the paper compares CAOs’ per- ceptions of the level of threat from natural disaster to an external, and presumably more unbiased, assessment of vulnerability. The external measurement of vulnerability is drawn from the University of South Carolina’s Hazards & Vulnerability Research Institute’s Social Vulnerability Index (SOVI) for the United States. This index, which is described more fully in the methods section, provides a measure for each county in the United States of their susceptibility to environmental hazards. By comparing the fear level of CAOs to the value of the SOVI threat level assigned to their communities, the paper explores the validity of CAOs’ perceptions. The second question considered is, do differences in other attitudes and perceptions vary based upon how threatened CAOs say they feel from potential natural disasters? If CAOs perceive high levels of threat from natural disasters, then does that influence their overall perspective? In this regard the paper examines attitudes towards bench- marking threat levels to similarly sized cities, threats from terrorism, and CAO estimation of the general public & 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd. DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-5973.2011.00647.x Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management Volume 19 Number 3 September 2011