Proceedings of the International Multiconference on ISBN 978-83-60810-14-9
Computer Science and Information Technology, pp. 195 – 200 ISSN 1896-7094
Abstract—In this paper our method of discovering data se-
quences in the time series is presented. Two major approaches
to this topic are considered. The first one, when we need to
judge whether a given series is similar to any of the known pat-
terns and the second one when there is a necessity to find how
many times within long series a defined pattern occurs. In both
cases the main problem is to recognize pattern occurrence(s),
but the distinction is essential because of the time frame within
which identification process is carried on. The proposed method
is based on the usage of multilayered feed-forward neural net-
work. Effectiveness of the method is tested in the domain of fi-
nancial analysis but its adaptation to almost any kind of se-
quences data can be done easily.
I. INTRODUCTION
HE issue of discovering data sequences has been heav-
ily investigated by the scientists of different disciplines
for many years. Despite this fact there is no doubt the issue is
still up-to-date. Statisticians, economists, weather forecast-
ers, operating system administrators – all of them, in their
daily routine, deal with many kind of sequences. Specifi-
cally, in the domain of finance analysis there are patterns de-
fined by the Technical Analysis (TA). Recognition of some
of this patterns among quotation data triggers investors buy
or sell decisions regarding examined stock. So it is crucial
for the people who play the stock exchange to recognize pat-
terns when they are really formed by stock exchange quota-
tions. Because of that there is a need to provide trustworthy
method of finding defined sequences. Lately, discovery of
patterns in time series plays very important role in the area of
bioinformatics [2] also.
T
In this paper a method of discovering data sequences in
the domain of financial analysis is presented but its adapta-
tion to any other kind of sequences data can be easily done.
This method uses multilayered feed-forward neural network
to recognize the technical analysis patterns. All experiments
which aim was evaluation of the method efficiency, are done
by the use of data which come from the Warsaw Stock Mar-
ket.
The paper consists of five sections. The next one de-
scribes different approaches to the problem of sequence data
discovery. Our method is introduced in the third section. The
next one presents the results of the experiments. some of
them were performed by the use of the method in artificial
environment simulating the Warsaw Stock Market. The final
section presents conclusion and future plans.
II. RELATED WORKS
Methods of pattern discovery in time series sequences in
the financial analysis are closely connected to econometrics
which can shortly be defined as the branch of economy that
deals with defining models of different systems by the use of
mathematics and statistics. Some of these models are created
by economists in order to make analysis of data or to make a
prediction of future stock exchange quotations. The problem
is to prepare a good model, where ‘good’ means the model
which takes into consideration all important relations which
can be distinguished in the modeled reality. This is of course
not easy. Often some relations become important under cer-
tain circumstances when others turn out to be useless. To
comply with all defined requirements there is a need to pre-
pare accurate model which can consist of even hundreds of
equations. Such approach causes difficulties in its compre-
hensibility by the user but also in a computer implementa-
tion. That is why scientists look for other methods of discov-
ering patterns in time series.
Fu and others [3] describe a method which uses perceptu-
ally important points (PIPs) of the graph to compare it with
other graph. By PIPs are assumed points that are significant
for the shape of the diagram to which they belong. Authors
presented a method for finding PIPs and algorithms for de-
termining the distance between points from two different
graphs. The idea introduced by them reflects the human-like
way of thinking (people usually do not remember all the
points which build the graph – they keep just more signifi-
cant ones in mind and then compare them to the other impor-
tant points). The advantage of this algorithm is its easy im-
plementation. Despite of that fact, there is a big disadvantage
of this method of discovering sequences. A problem is with
series which have high amplitude between two adjacent
points – higher than some PIPs can place between those two
points. It leads to the problem, when we have PIPs identified
not among whole series but mainly in some its parts. Similar
approach is applied in the paper [1], where a special metrics
of similarity between a pattern in question and a given pat-
tern is designed.
978-83-60810-14-9/08/$25.00 © 2008 IEEE 195
Discovery of Technical Analysis Patterns
Urszula Markowska-Kaczmar
Wrocław University of Technology,
Wybrzeże Wyspiańskiego 27,
50-370 Wrocław, Poland
Email: Urszula.Markowska-Kaczmar@pwr.wroc.pl
Maciej Dziedzic
Wrocław University of Technology,
Wybrzeże Wyspiańskiego 27,
50-370 Wrocław, Poland
Email: 133644@student.pwr.wroc.pl