Bull Math Biol (2011) 73:2916–2931
DOI 10.1007/s11538-011-9652-6
ORIGINAL ARTICLE
The Role of Immunity and Seasonality
in Cholera Epidemics
Rosângela P. Sanches · Claudia P. Ferreira ·
Roberto A. Kraenkel
Received: 16 October 2010 / Accepted: 15 March 2011 / Published online: 6 April 2011
© Society for Mathematical Biology 2011
Abstract This paper presents a mathematical model for cholera epidemics which
comprises seasonality, loss of host immunity, and control mechanisms acting to re-
duce cholera transmission. A collection of data related to cholera disease allows us
to show that outbreaks in endemic areas are subject to a resonant behavior, since the
intrinsic oscillation period of the disease (∼1 year) is synchronized with the annual
contact rate variation. Moreover, we argue that the short period of the host immunity
may be associated to secondary peaks of incidence observed in some regions (a bi-
modal pattern). Finally, we explore some possible mechanisms of cholera control, and
analyze their efficiency. We conclude that, besides mass vaccination—which may be
impracticable—improvements in sanitation system and food/personal hygiene are the
most effective ways to prevent an epidemic.
Keywords Cholera · Mathematical model · Endemic state · Resonance · Bimodal ·
Control mechanisms
R.P. Sanches
Programa de Pós-graduação em Biometria, Universidade Estadual Paulista, 18618-000 Botucatu, SP,
Brazil
e-mail: rps@ibb.unesp.br
C.P. Ferreira ( )
Departamento de Bioestatística, Instituto de Biociências, Universidade Estadual Paulista,
18618-000 Botucatu, SP, Brazil
e-mail: pio@ibb.unesp.br
R.A. Kraenkel
Instituto de Física Teórica, Universidade Estadual Paulista, R. Dr. Bento Teobaldo Ferraz 271,
01140-070 São Paulo, SP, Brazil
e-mail: kraenkel@ift.unesp.br