COWLES FOUNDATION FOR RESEARCH IN ECONOMICS AT YALE UNIVERSITY Box 2125, Yale Station New Haven, Connecticut 06520 COWLES FOUNDATION DISCUSSION PAPER NO. 1057 Note: Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers are preliminary materials circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comment. Requests for single copies of a Paper will be filled by the Cowles Foundation within the limits of the supply. References in publications to Discussion Papers (other than mere acknowledgment by a writer that he has access to such unpublished material) should be cleared with the author to protect the tentative character of these papers. A SIMULATION ESTIMATION ANALYSIS OF THE EXTERNAL DEBT CRISES OF DEVELOPING COUNTRIES Vassilis A. Hajivassiliou September 1993