Rural sustainability under threat in Zimbabwe – Simulation of future land use/cover changes in the Bindura district based on the Markov-cellular automata model Courage Kamusoko a, * , Masamu Aniya a , Bongo Adi b , Munyaradzi Manjoro c a Graduate School of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tennodai 1-1-1, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8572, Japan b Graduate School of Humanities and Social Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Japan c Department of Geography, Bindura University of Science Education, Bindura, Zimbabwe Keywords: Land use/cover change Multicriteria evaluation (MCE) Multi-objective land allocation (MOLA) Markov-cellular automata model Zimbabwe abstract Spatially explicit land use/cover models are indispensable for sustainable rural land use planning, particularly in southern African countries that are experiencing rapid land use/ cover changes. Using Zimbabwe as an example, we simulated future land use/cover changes up to 2030 based on a Markov-cellular automata model that integrates Markovian transition probabilities computed from satellite-derived land use/cover maps and a cellular automata spatial filter. A multicriteria evaluation (MCE) procedure was used to generate transition potential maps from biophysical and socioeconomic data. Dynamic adjustments of transition probabilities and transition potential map thresholds were implemented in the Markov-cellular automata model through a multi-objective land allocation (MOLA) procedure. Using the normalised transition probabilities, the Markov-cellular automata model simulated future land use/cover changes (up to 2030) under the 2000 calibration scenario, predicting a continuing downward trend in woodland areas and an upward trend in bareland areas. Future land use/cover simulations indicated that if the current land use/ cover trends continue in the study area without holistic sustainable development measures, severe land degradation will ensue. Ó 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Introduction An understanding of land use/cover change dynamics is fundamental in rural land use planning, especially for sustainable agriculture and forestry management in sub-Saharan Africa. Two-thirds of the population living in the rural areas of central and southern Africa depends on agriculture and other natural resources such as timber and firewood for their economic and social needs (Campbell, Costanza, & van den Belt, 2000; Gambiza, Bond, Frost, & Higgins, 2000). However, as land is getting scarcer, degradation of natural resources intensifies due to high population pressure, forcing subsistence farmers into land use practices that are often inappropriate (Abalu & Hassan, 1998; Amissah-Arthur & Miller, 2002; Davidson et al., 2003). In southern African countries such as Zimbabwe, population growth, colonial imbalances in land distribution, agriculture expansion, and government policies as well as environmental factors such as drought are the primary drivers of land use/ cover changes, particularly in the communal areas (Hamandawana, Nkambwe, Chanda, & Eckardt, 2005; Wood, Tappan, & Hadj, 2004). Communal areas (formerly tribal trust lands) are areas that were demarcated for black farmers during the colonial era, and land is held under communal tenure. * Corresponding author. Tel./fax: þ81 29 853 6888. E-mail address: ckamusko@geoenv.tsukuba.ac.jp (C. Kamusoko). Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Applied Geography journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/apgeog 0143-6228/$ – see front matter Ó 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.apgeog.2008.10.002 Applied Geography 29 (2009) 435–447