A novel approach to real-time risk-prediction for emerging infectious diseases: a case study in Avian Influenza H5N1 Jewell CP Department of Statistics University of Warwick Coventry CV4 7AL UK Kypraios T School of Mathematical Sciences University of Nottingham University Park Nottingham NG7 2RD UK Christley RM Faculty of Veterinary Science University of Liverpool CH64 7TE UK Roberts GO Department of Statistics University of Warwick Coventry CV4 7AL UK