Econ Theory (2013) 54:717–755
DOI 10.1007/s00199-012-0734-y
RESEARCH ARTICLE
Inductive reasoning about unawareness
Simon Grant · John Quiggin
Received: 3 May 2011 / Accepted: 23 November 2012 / Published online: 27 December 2012
© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2012
Abstract We develop a model of games with awareness that allows for differential
levels of awareness. We show that, for the standard modal-logical interpretations of
belief and awareness, a player cannot believe there exist propositions of which he is
unaware. Nevertheless, we argue that a boundedly rational individual may regard the
possibility that there exist propositions of which she is unaware as being supported
by inductive reasoning, based on past experience and consideration of the limited
awareness of others. In this paper, we provide a formal representation of inductive
reasoning in the context of a dynamic game with differential awareness. We show
that, given differential awareness over time and between players, individuals can derive
inductive support for propositions expressing their own unawareness. We consider the
ecological rationality of heuristics to guide decisions in problems involving differential
awareness.
Keywords Unawareness · Bounded rationality · Induction
JEL Classification D80 · D82
We thank, without implication, Joseph Halpern, Jeff Kline, Mamuro Kaneko, Benoît Menoni, Andrew
McLennan, Leandro Rêgo and Matthew Ryan for helpful comments and criticism.
Financial support from the Australian Research Council Discovery Grant DP120102463 is gratefully
acknowledged.
S. Grant · J. Quiggin (B )
School of Economics, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia
e-mail: j.quiggin@uq.edu.au
S. Grant
e-mail: simongrant@uq.edu.au
123