Moving away from methyl bromide: Political economy of pesticide transition for California strawberries since 2004 Erin N. Mayfield a , Catherine Shelley Norman a, b, * a Department of Geography and Environmental Engineering, The Johns Hopkins University, 3400 North Charles Street, Baltimore, MD 21218, USA b Department of Economics, The Johns Hopkins University, 3400 North Charles Street, Baltimore, MD 21218, USA article info Article history: Received 28 September 2011 Received in revised form 28 March 2012 Accepted 5 April 2012 Available online 9 May 2012 Keywords: Methyl bromide Montreal Protocol Strawberries Critical use exemptions Iodomethane abstract We examine the progress of the phaseout of the use of the pesticide methyl bromide in the production of California field strawberries. This phaseout is required under the Montreal Protocol and has been contentious in this sector, which receives exemptions from the schedule initially agreed under the treaty, and in international negotiations over the future of the Protocol. We examine the various ex-ante predictions of the impacts on growers, consumers and trade patterns in light of several years of declining allocations under the Critical Use provisions of the Protocol and the 2010 approval of iodomethane for use in California and subsequent 2012 withdrawal of this alternative from the US market. We find that, contrary to ex-ante industry claims, the years of declining methyl bromide use have been years of rising yields, acreage, exports, revenues and market share for California growers, even when faced with a global recession and increased imports from Mexican growers who retain the right to use the chemical under the Protocol. This has implications for the Protocol as a whole and for the remainder of the US phaseout of this chemical in particular. Ó 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1. Introduction and background US fruit and vegetable growers using the fumigant methyl bromide (MeBr), scheduled for phaseout under the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer, faced uncertainty about the cost and effectiveness of alternative chem- icals and practices, and many of them applied for exemptions allowing continued use after the planned elimination of MeBr. This process was controversial e so much so that the United States suggested that they might withdraw from the Montreal Protocol, up to that point considered a model of successful international environmental policy, if their nominations for exemptions were not granted (Gareau and DuPuis, 2009). In the exemption process, which allowed exceptions to the scheduled 2005 complete phaseout date, one of the most contested uses was for strawberry farming, especially in California where many alternatives are strictly regulated or disallowed. Growers argued that none of the alternatives met the ‘economic and technical feasibility’ conditions of the Critical Use Exemption (CUE) rules. DeCanio and Norman (2005) discuss possible interpretations of the feasibility criteria at length, emphasizing that it cannot mean that no changes in costs or agricultural practices are required of methyl bromide users, but there is not a consensus definition of precisely what standard must be met. Currently, the majority of CUEs for methyl bromide are allocated to the United States. 1 The share of field (rather than nursery) strawberries in total exemption requests has also grown; the 2014 US field strawberries nomination was for over 93% of the total US allocation, and was exclusively for use in California, which produces 90% of US strawberries (ERS, 2011c). In 2007 the same share was only 13% and more geographically dispersed, including uses in the southeastern US as well as California (USDoS, 2010, 2005, ozone. unep.org). Substitutes have been slower to develop in California, * Corresponding author. Department of Geography and Environmental Engi- neering, The Johns Hopkins University, 3400 North Charles Street, Baltimore, MD 21218, USA. Tel.: þ1 410 516 5184; fax: þ1 410 516 8996. E-mail addresses: erin.noel.mayfield@gmail.com (E.N. Mayfield), norman@ jhu.edu (C.S. Norman). 1 For the last seven years reported, 2007e2013, approved US CUEs have been more than 75% of non-Article 5 exemptions approved globally, so US strawberry uses are a significant amount of remaining global use of MeBr. In the first year of the exemption process, US allowances were a bit over 40% of total non-Article 5 allo- cations. For 2013, the United States has received over 90% of approved CUE allowances. Article 5 parties, which are, roughly speaking, less developed countries, do not have to complete phaseout until 2015, but their total use peaked in 1998, and by 2010 total consumption in Article 5 and non-Article 5 countries were approximately equal (exclusive of quarantine and pre-shipment uses, which are regulated separately and excluded from the discussion throughout this paper) (ozone.unep.org). Contents lists available at SciVerse ScienceDirect Journal of Environmental Management journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/jenvman 0301-4797/$ e see front matter Ó 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2012.04.009 Journal of Environmental Management 106 (2012) 93e101