NOVEMBER 6, 2016 THE GREAT BARGAIN BETWEEN RUSSIA AND CHINA FOR CENTRAL ASIA By Daniyar Kosnazarov and Iskander Akylbayev The recent terrorist attacks in Kazakhstan, considered to be the most stable and prosperous state in Central Asia, followed by the assault on the Chinese Embassy in Kyrgyzstan exposed the vulnerability of the domestic and regional security environment. In addition to that, the ongoing power transition in Uzbekistan and Taliban activity near the Afghan-Tajik border raise serious security questions among geopolitical heavyweights such as Russia and China. Moscow and Beijing’s shared interest in a stable Central Asia is not new. Both players are currently trying to increase their bilateral ties via security agreements and multilateral mechanisms such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). At the same time there is mutual understanding of the importance of limiting US presence in the region. Indeed, during the recent BRICS summit hosted in October 2016, President Xi and President Putin stressed that no power would be allowed to interfere into Central Asian affairs. However, Beijing’s activation in regional security affairs challenges the established “division of labour”, where Russia primarily acts as security guarantor and China is increasingly responsible for the economic development of the region. These two major geopolitical neighbours may need to adapt their roles to ensure the right formula for cooperation in Central Asia. In light of China’s gradual transformation from a mainly economics-oriented to a more security-conscious power, Moscow is trying to sell its counterterrorism experience gained in the Middle East to Central Asian elites. In the aftermath of the deadly attacks in the Kazakh cities of Aktobe and Almaty, on June 8, 2016, at the SCO defence ministerial meeting in Astana, Russian Defence Minister Sergey Shoigu stressed that Moscow is “ready to share its successful Syrian counter-terrorism experience with Kazakhstan”. At the same time, Russia has become more active in capitalizing on the “discourse of danger” coming from Afghanistan to Central Asia. In particular, the Kremlin’s special envoy to Afghanistan, Zamir Kabulov, has stated many times that ISIS’s key objective in Afghanistan is to infiltrate the Central Asian region. Moreover, since the beginning of 2016, Russian high- ranking state and military officials have visited Tajikistan (April 6), Turkmenistan (June 8), Kazakhstan (June 8) where the key item on the agenda was increased security cooperation against a common terrorist threat. However, the danger of the “Afghan factor” may not be the sole reason for Moscow’s concerns in the region. Beijing is gradually becoming a more assertive actor in the security field, particularly on counter-terrorism. In February 2016, China and Tajikistan agreed to form a bilateral counter-terrorism centre in Dushanbe. Moreover, Tajik-Chinese cooperation resulted in Beijing’s announcement to build military outposts on the Tajik-Afghan border. While in August, China along with Pakistan,