Innovation Diffusion of Successive Generations of High Technology Products P.K. Kapur, Udayan Chanda and Abhishek Tandon Deptment of Operational Research, University of Delhi, Delhi-ll0007 pl@gmail.com Absract As most of the high-technology companies are trying to be more demand driven, technological innovation and difusion have become important force in markets today. It critically afects the fortunes of consumers, irms, and nations. Despite research across many disciplines, many important areas still remain to be explored fully. Consumer adoption decision for multi-generation innovation is one such important research area in this ield. High technology product comes in generations where a new innovation ofers a signiicant improvement in performance or beneits over the previous generation. And, often two successive generations under the same product category compete in the market. Yet technology substitution has received little attention in the difusion of innovation literature. Research for consumer durables has been dominated by studies of irst purchase adoption which do not explicitly consider the presence of an existing technology. Only a handful of papers explicitly deal with the difusion of technology substitution. In this work, we propose multigenerational difusion model to study the marketing dynamics of Indian Television Market (both Black & White and Color Television). T he model consider repeat-adoption-substitution diffusion framework. Comparisons with diferent existing multigenerational models are made. The results of this study could be advanced for forecasting new technologies of television product. Kwors - Multi-generation, Dffusion, Substitution, Repeat urchase, Sppers. I. INTRODUCTION Successul product planning requires creating a long-term pln for generational changes and advances to maintain market share and customer loyalty. From elecronic to sotware products, the long-term rajectory of products requires changes to keep products resh and appealing to customers. The most efective multigenerational product planning generally includes defensive measures to keep your product competitive. Marketing growh of infomation-technology products is continuously sustained by semiconductor products. In this paper we study the sales patten of television product (both B& W and 978-1-4244-8343-3/10/$26.00 ©2010 IEEE 505 Sameer Anand S.S. College of Business Studies, University of Delhi, Delhi-l10095 Color) in Indian market. Television in India has been in existence for about four decades. For the irst 17 years, it spread haltingly and transmission was usually in black and white. In the initial years the Indian Television Industry expanded very slowly. Many factors were responsible for the lukewam response rom he consumers that include he disasrous govement policies along with he popular belief that television was a luxurious element that Indians could do without. Sales of TV sets, as relected by licences issued to buyers were just 676,615 until 1977. Post liberalization he industry has been witnessing robust demand; uelled by revival in economy, increase in individual disposable income and liberal incentive schemes by banks and inancial institutions. The demand for CTV grew at 15% during 1985-89 but witnessed a slump rom 1990-94. With the eny of MNCs and hereby aggressive marketing, the period between 1995-96 to 1999-2000 saw a surge in growh rate to 29%. In between his period though the market share of B& W television declined rapidly but it was never been out of he market. Color television was introduced in Indian market on 1981. Though post liberalization color television to lrge extent substitute he market share of B& W television but it couldn't able to cannibalize he market completely. Study of technology-market structure analysis involves describing how product generations compete against each oher. New innovation in the market doesn't immediately replace the previous one that it intends to substitute, but stts to compete with it. This creates a sequence of parallel diusions of he existing generational products in the market. The need for inroduction of a new technology generation can be explained with he help of S-cve or sigmoid diusion curve. Dring he initial period of he product life cycle the adoption may be slow with promoters trying for acceleration (intensity of diusion). Later the rise in he curve is steep especially for successul products. But sales (proitability) of a tecnology product can be improved only till it attains its natural performance limit. When a technology starts approaching its natral limit of performance, a