Physica A 387 (2008) 476–484 www.elsevier.com/locate/physa Computer simulation of the coffee leaf miner using sexual Penna aging model A.C.S. de Oliveira a , S.G.F. Martins a,∗ , M.S. Zacarias b a Departamento de Ciˆ encias Exatas, Universidade Federal de Lavras, Caixa Postal 3037, CEP: 37200-000, Lavras-MG, Brazil b Embrapa Caf´ e/EcoCentro, Campus UFLA, Caixa Postal 176, CEP: 37200-000, Lavras-MG, Brazil Received 31 July 2007; received in revised form 10 September 2007 Available online 16 October 2007 Abstract Forecast models based on climatic conditions are of great interest in Integrated Pest Management (IPM) programs. The success of these models depends, among other factors, on the knowledge of the temperature effect on the pests’ population dynamics. In this direction, a computer simulation was made for the population dynamics of the coffee leaf miner, L. coffeella, at different temperatures, considering experimental data relative to the pest. The age structure was inserted into the dynamics through sexual Penna Model. The results obtained, such as life expectancy, growth rate and annual generations’ number, in agreement to those in laboratory and field conditions, show that the simulation can be used as a forecast model for controlling L. coffeella. c  2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. Keywords: Population dynamics; Forecast model; Aging 1. Introduction The Integrated Pest Management (IPM) is a pest controlling system in which all possible control options (biological, chemical, cultural, manual and mechanical) are evaluated and one or more are selected for prevention or remediation of unacceptable pest activity or damage. The control option(s) choice is based on the efficiency, environmental impact, site characteristics, health risk and economy [1]. Forecast models based on climatic conditions are of great interest for planning control actions. Methods of degree-days [2,3] are useful tools for forecasting pest population peaks, through estimation of the generation number. The insect “coffee leaf miner”, Leucoptera coffeella (Gu´ erin M` eneville, 1842), is one of the most important pests of the coffee due to the economic damages caused by this insect in the production of coffee. It is a pest from the African continent which only attacks coffee. Its presence has been evidenced in Brazil since 1851 [4]. The main method for controlling coffee leaf miner has been the use of chemical products. However, agents of biological control have played an important role, being sufficiently able to keep the population of the pest below the economic damage level in some regions [5]. ∗ Corresponding author. Tel.: +55 35 3829 1383; fax: +55 35 3829 1650. E-mail address: solangemarti@gmail.com (S.G.F. Martins). 0378-4371/$ - see front matter c  2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.physa.2007.09.017