Contributed Paper An Adaptive-Management Framework for Optimal Control of Hiking Near Golden Eagle Nests in Denali National Park JULIEN MARTIN, ∗ †‡ PAUL L. FACKLER,§ JAMES D. NICHOLS,† MICHAEL C. RUNGE,† CAROL L. MCINTYRE, ∗∗ BRUCE L. LUBOW,†† MAGGIE C. MCCLUSKIE, ∗∗ AND JOEL A. SCHMUTZ‡‡ ∗ Florida Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611-0485, U.S.A., julienm@ufl.edu †Patuxent Wildlife Research Center, United States Geological Survey, 12100 Beech Forest Road, Laurel, MD 20708, U.S.A. ‡Fish and Wildlife Research Institute, 100, 8th Avenue SE, St. Petersburg, FL 33701, U.S.A. §Agricultural and Resource Economics, P.O. Box 8109, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695-8109, U.S.A. ∗∗ National Park Service, 4175 Geist Road, Fairbanks, AK 99709, U.S.A. ††Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523, U.S.A. ‡‡Alaska Science Center, United States Geological Survey, 4210 University Drive, Anchorage, AK 99508, U.S.A. Abstract: Unintended effects of recreational activities in protected areas are of growing concern. We used an adaptive-management framework to develop guidelines for optimally managing hiking activities to maintain desired levels of territory occupancy and reproductive success of Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) in Denali National Park (Alaska, U.S.A.). The management decision was to restrict human access (hikers) to particular nesting territories to reduce disturbance. The management objective was to minimize restrictions on hikers while maintaining reproductive performance of eagles above some specified level. We based our decision analysis on predictive models of site occupancy of eagles developed using a combination of expert opinion and data collected from 93 eagle territories over 20 years. The best predictive model showed that restricting human access to eagle territories had little effect on occupancy dynamics. However, when considering important sources of uncertainty in the models, including environmental stochasticity, imperfect detection of hares on which eagles prey, and model uncertainty, restricting access of territories to hikers improved eagle reproduction substantially. An adaptive management framework such as ours may help reduce uncertainty of the effects of hiking activities on Golden Eagles. Keywords: fluctuating populations, human disturbance, multistate site occupancy models, risk analysis, severe uncertainty, structured decision making Un Marco de Referencia de Manejo Adaptativo para el Control ´ Optimo del Excursionismo en el Parque Nacional Denali Resumen: Los efectos no planeados de las actividades recreativas en ´ areas protegidas son de creciente preocupaci´ on. Utilizamos un marco de manejo adaptativos para desarrollar directrices para el manejo ´ optimo de actividades de excursionismo para mantener niveles deseables de ocupaci´ on territorial y ´exito reproductivo de ´ Aguilas Doradas (Aquila chrysaetos) en el Parque Nacional Denali (Alaska, E. U. A). La decisi´ on de manejo fue restringir el acceso humano (excursionistas) a determinados territorios de anidaci´ on para reducir la perturbaci´ on. El objetivo de manejo fue minimizar las restricciones a los excursionistas y mantener el desempe˜ no reproductivo de ´ aguilas por encima de alg´ un nivel especificado. Basamos nuestro an´ alisis de decisiones en modelos predictivos de la ocupaci´ on de sitios por ´ aguilas desarrollados mediante Paper submitted November 14, 2009; revised manuscript accepted April 8, 2010. 1 Conservation Biology, Volume **, No. **, ***–*** C 2011 Society for Conservation Biology DOI: 10.1111/j.1523-1739.2010.01644.x