American Journal of Environmental Engineering 2016, 6(2): 52-61
DOI: 10.5923/j.ajee.20160602.03
Modeling the Relation between Carbon Dioxide Emissions
and Sea Level Rise for the Determination of Future (2100)
Sea Level
Hisham A. Maddah
Department of Chemical Engineering, King Abdulaziz University, Rabigh, Saudi Arabia
Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, USA
Abstract This paper confirms that there is a strong relationship between global warming (CO
2
emissions) and global
mean sea level rise (GMSLR). We discussed some statistics and facts regarding to the history of CO
2
emissions as well as
the present situation and how do CO
2
emissions play a key role in controlling Earth’s temperature. A decent portion of this
study covered valuable literature information on the topic of GMSLR which is a major global problem that resulted from
climate change. The main two reasons for GMSLR are melting of glaciers or ice sheets and thermal expansion of seawater.
Submerging coastal cities, soils’ contamination and damaging animals’ habitats are various consequences of GMSLR. The
essential part in our study is to find the exact range of GMSLR by 2100 via establishing a model that is based on comparing
previous increases in CO
2
emissions with changes in sea level rise at the same time. Two scenarios of CO
2
emissions are
considered and they are the minimum (RCP2.6) and the maximum (RCP8.5) according to IPCC. Future GMSLR data for
both scenarios are calculated for the overall rise, individual oceans and different seas. Rise in Earth’s temperature and
radiative forcing (heat flux) are investigated for both scenarios and a proportional correlation is approved. Moreover,
temperature anomalies data are obtained to identify the future differences between both scenarios. Results showed that, by
2100, GMSLR would be between 0.2-1.6 meters with an annual increase rate of 2.35-18.8 mm/yr. It is worth mentioning
that our calculations confirmed that by the end of 2015 the total rise in temperature, since 1880, was around 0.85°C.
However, by the end of the twenty-first century, the total change in heat flux would be about 2.5 and 8 W/m
2
for RCP2.6
and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, and the accumulated temperature rise, since 1880, would be between 1.22°C and 4°C.
Keywords Ocean, Sea level rise, Climate change, Global warming, CO
2
emissions, Modeling, Temperature anomaly,
Radiative forcing, Earth’s heat flux, Future, 2100
1. Introduction
Carbon dioxide (CO
2
) constitutes only about 0.04% of air;
but it plays a crucial role in controlling Earth’s average
temperature. However, bulk air elements like nitrogen (N
2
)
or oxygen (O
2
) are not capable of absorbing heat radiation.
The opposite is true for water vapours (clouds) which are
able to absorb 75% of the sun’s radiation. Yet, clouds
cannot control planet overall temperature since that water
vapours depend on air circulation and they condense
without being able to keep Earth’s temperature at lower
rates. On the other hand, CO
2
gas is independent of the
previous parameters and has a strong tendency to absorb
sun energy which reduces Earth’s surface heat radiation to
space. Higher CO
2
leads to higher temperature and humidity
* Corresponding author:
hmaddah@kau.edu.sa (Hisham A. Maddah)
Published online at http://journal.sapub.org/ajee
Copyright © 2016 Scientific & Academic Publishing. All Rights Reserved
in the atmosphere; more or extra temperature will be added
from having more water vapours. Thus, CO
2
acts as a
control knob that controls the amount of water vapours and
clouds in Earth’s atmosphere [1-3].
There is a strong correlation between CO
2
emissions and
rise in temperatures. Although correlation does not equal
causation, scientists believe that greenhouse gases are
driving the glob’s temperature higher especially after
observing some indications like the increase in ice melting
rate, deep ocean heat and sea level rise [6]. According to the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), global
average temperatures on both land and ocean surfaces have
increased about 0.85°C (1.53°F) from 1880 to 2012. Global
records of NASA and NCDC corporations revealed that the
decade between 2000 and 2009 is the hottest decade, with an
average temperature of 12.2°C, since the beginning of
modern technology about a century ago. Further, the
warmest 30-year period was from 1993 to 2012 since 1400
years and global records indicate that earth atmosphere is
getting warmer than before [7].