THE AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL UNIVERSITY WORKING PAPERS IN ECONOMICS AND ECONOMETRICS Projected Economic Growth in China and India: The Role of Demographic Change* Rod Tyers, Jane Golley and Iain Bain College of Business and Economics Australian National University November 2006 Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics No. 477 Australian National University ISBN: 086831 477 3 Key words: China, India, demographic change and economic growth JEL codes: C68, E27, F43, J11, O53 * Funding for the research described in this paper is from Australian Research Council Discovery Grant No. DP0557889. Thanks are due to Siew Ean Khoo and Ming Ming Chan for assistance in developing the demographic sub-model, and to Terrie Walmsley for technical help with the GTAP Database and the migration data as well as for useful discussions on the subject of baseline simulations. 1