Quantifying coastal inundation vulnerability of Turkey to sea-level rise Ali C. Demirkesen & Fatih Evrendilek & Suha Berberoglu Received: 26 January 2007 / Accepted: 11 April 2007 / Published online: 15 May 2007 # Springer Science + Business Media B.V. 2007 Abstract The vulnerability of low-lying coastal areas in Turkey to inundation was quantified based on the sea-level rise scenarios of 1, 2, and 3 m by 2205. Through digital elevation model (DEM) acquired by the shuttle radar topography mission (SRTM), the extent and distribution of the high to low-risk coastal plains were identified. The spatio-temporal analysis revealed the inundated coastal areas of 545, 1,286, and 2,125 km 2 at average rates of 5, 10, and 15 mm yr -1 for 200 years, respectively. This is equivalent to minimum and maximum land losses by 2205 of 0.1– 0.3% of the total area and of 1.3–5.2% of the coastal areas with elevations of less than 100 m in the country, respectively. This study provides an initial assessment of vulnerability to sea-level rise to help decision-makers, and other concerned stakeholders to develop appropriate public policies and land-use planning measures. Keywords Coastal vulnerability . Inundation . Global climate change . Sea-level rise . Turkey Introduction Global average sea level at the last glacial maximum about 20,000 years ago was over 120 m below present day levels and rose at average rates of about 10 mm yr -1 between 15,000 and 6,000 years ago, 0.5 mm yr -1 over the last 6,000 years, 0.1–0.2 mm yr -1 over the last 3,000 years, and 1.0–2.0 mm yr -1 during the twentieth century (Church et al. 2001; Alley et al. 2005; Overpeck et al. 2006). In response to continued greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the recent increase in the rate of sea level rise is attributed to ocean thermal expansion, glacier melting, increased melting of the Greenland ice sheet, the ongoing response of the Antarctic ice sheet to changes since the last glacial maximum, and changes in permafrost and sediment deposition in the ocean (Douglas and Peltier 2002; Munk 2003; Cazenave and Nerem 2004). Sea-level rise is accounted for by an increase in the volume of the ocean without change in mass (the steric compo- nent), due mainly to the thermal expansion of ocean water, and an increase in the mass of water in the oceans (the eustatic component), due mainly to the melting of continental ice (IPCC 2001). Environ Monit Assess (2008) 138:101–106 DOI 10.1007/s10661-007-9746-7 A. C. Demirkesen Department of Geodesy and Photogrammetry Engineering, Nigde University, Nigde, Turkey F. Evrendilek (*) Department of Landscape Architecture, Mustafa Kemal University, Antakya-Hatay, Turkey e-mail: fevrendilek@mku.edu.tr S. Berberoglu Department of Landscape Architecture, Cukurova University, Balcali-Adana, Turkey