DOCUMENT RESUME ED 424 804 HE 031 599 AUTHOR Borden, Victor M. H.; Dalphin, John F. TITLE Simulating the Effect of Student Profile Changes on Retention and Graduation Rates: A Markov Chain Analysis. AIR 1998 Annual Forum Paper. PUB DATE 1998-05-19 NOTE 21p.; Paper presented at the Annual Forum of the Association for Institutional Research (38th, Minneapolis, MN, May 17-20, 1998). PUB TYPE Reports Research (143) Speeches/Meeting Papers (150) EDRS PRICE MF01/PC01 Plus Postage. DESCRIPTORS *Academic Persistence; College Students; Credits; Enrollment; *Grade Point Average; *Graduation; Higher Education; *Markov Processes; Models; Predictor Variables; *School Holding Power; Simulation; Student Characteristics; Universities IDENTIFIERS *AIR Forum ABSTRACT This study used Markov chain matrices to simulate the effect of varying degrees of change in student characteristics on retention and graduation rates. Data were applied to a 1-year enrollment transition matrix that tracks how students of each class level progress into the same or higher class levels, to a completed degree, or to non-returning status. The results indicated that there are large, initial differences in graduation rates according to grade-point average (GPA) and course credit-load differences among students. Despite the strong association between grades and retention, this analysis indicated that even a 25 percent upward shift in grade distribution increased the total graduation rate by only 2.4 percent. A shift in 25 percent of students toward higher credit-load categories resulted in a total increase in the graduation rate of less than 1 percent. The simulation demonstrates that even significant changes in the distribution of students by GPA and course credit-load do not yield significant changes in graduation rates. (MDM) ******************************************************************************** Reproductions supplied by EDRS are the best that can be made from the original document. ********************************************************************************