Proceedings of the 2007 International Conference on Collaborative Technologies and Systems
© IEEE, 2007
A New Tactical Group Decision Analysis System (TGDAS)
Combining Analytical and Naturalistic Decision Modeling
Amos Freedy, Ph.D.
Marvin Cohen, Ph.D.
Gershon Weltman, Ph.D.
Elan Freedy
Perceptronics Solutions, Inc.
info@percsolutions.com
ABSTRACT
The Tactical Group Decision Aiding System supports
co-located or distributed teams who are planning
missions requiring the selection of one among several
possible options. Team members propose courses of
action by creating scenarios, i.e., causally linked
sequences of actions, key factors or events in the past,
present, or future, and short or long-term mission
outcomes. The TGDAS builds formally correct decision
models via a scenario matrix that compares scenarios
and identifies significant branch points, and by means
of pre-stored editable templates that supply variables
and relationships matching the scenario branch points
in the relevant type of mission and situation. Model-
based analyses order the options and let the
collaborative team focus on variables that have the most
impact on decisions and outcomes.
KEY WORDS: Collaborative Decision Support,
Decision Analysis, Naturalistic Decision Making, Auto-
mated Facilitation , Tactical Decision Making
1. INTRODUCTION
The need for collaborative tactical planning and
decision-making is at the center of today’s military and
security command and control operations – and of
many business operations as well. Associated with this
critical need is the problem of aiding and enhancing the
capabilities for tactical decision making by distributed
collaborative groups. Of particular concern is
collaboration across services, agencies and
organizations, and in operations involving coalition
partners dispersed in different geographical locations.
It is clear that computer support systems provide the
logical path to aiding and enhancing. But up to now no
completely satisfactory computer solution has emerged
-- in large part because previous solutions have focused
primarily on the decision process and not the product.
The field of group decision support systems (GDSS)
has been committed to developing interactive
computer-based systems which facilitate the solution of
unstructured problems by decision makers working
together as a team. However, the main objective of
GDSS development has been to augment the
effectiveness of decision groups through interactive
sharing of information among the group members and
with the software applications. The focus of these
systems is almost entirely on facilitating group
interaction, brainstorming and communication.
Virtually no attention is paid to underlying decision
analytic principles or to support of normative decision
making. The problem we have addressed, therefore, is
that of developing a computer-based collaborative
decision support system that both facilitates interaction
and leads to improved decision products.
2. DECISION MODELING
The development of Analytical Decision Theory as an
overarching framework for Bayesian probability and
choice is regarded as among the most significant
accomplishments in logic and statistics in the second
half of the twentieth century [3][9]. Decision theory
provides a rigorous and analytically justified framework
for organizing the information and judgments relevant
to a decision, specifying relationships among key
variables, propagating uncertainty, capturing and
weighing objectives, and estimating the overall value
and risk of alternative decision options [7][8].