Acta Tropica 162 (2016) 56–65 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Acta Tropica jo u r n al homep age: www.elsevier.com/locate/actatropica Distribution Modeling of three screwworm species in the ecologically diverse landscape of North West Pakistan Farrah Zaidi a , Syeda Hira Fatima b,∗ , Muhammad Khisroon a , Ayesha Gul a a Department of Zoology, University of Peshawar, Pakistan b Department of Space Science, Institute of Space Technology, Islamabad 46000, Pakistan a r t i c l e i n f o Article history: Received 1 February 2016 Received in revised form 4 June 2016 Accepted 10 June 2016 Available online 14 June 2016 Keywords: Invasive screwworm Myiasis SDMs Pakistan a b s t r a c t North West Pakistan (NWP) is characterized by four eco-zones: Northern Montane Region, North Western Hills, Submontane Region and Indus Plains. Present study identified 1037 cases of traumatic myi- asis in the region during 2012–2015. Screw worm larvae were classified as 12 species: Chrysomya bezziana (Villeneuve), Chryomya megacephala (Fabricius), Chrysomya rufifacies (Macquart), Lucilia cuprina (Wiedemann), Lucilia sericata (Meigen), Lucilia illustris (Meigen), Lucilia porphyrina (Walker), Hemipyrellia ligguriens (Wiedemann), Calliphora vicina (Robineau-Desvoidy), Wohlfahrtia magnifica (Schiner), Sar- cophaga crassipalpalis (Macquart), Sarchophaga species. Among these C. bezziana, L. cuprina and W. magnifica with approximately 882 case reports were the principal agents of traumatic myiasis. The species W. magnifica is a first report from Pakistan. In order to investigate spatial distribution of these dominant species we used MaxEnt niche model. Our results revealed a well-established occurrence of C. bezziana and L. cuprina in the four eco-regions while W. magnifica is currently contained in the Submontane Region. Several hot spot areas of infestation were detected all characterized by high human population density showing synanthropic nature of these species. Wohlfahrtia magnifica was excluded from Northern Mon- tane Region with severe winters and Southern Indus Plains with harsh summers revealing that invasive species are initially sensitive to extreme of temperatures. Presence of L. cuprina in the wet areas of North Humid Belt (Maximum annual precipitation: 1641 mm) depicted a moisture preference of the species. In perspective of changing climate and future predictions of severe events such as droughts and flooding in NWP, W. magnifica can potentially alter the species composition. Considering these findings in an eco- geographically dynamic region of Pakistan we predict that two factors (1) Growing human population (2) Climatic conditions, equally contribute to range shift of synanthropic species. © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1. Introduction Wound myiasis describes the infestation of living humans or vertebrate animals with fly larvae which feed and develop in the cutaneous tissues of their hosts, causing a more or less severe trau- matizing injury (Farkas et al., 2009). It may involve species of fly whose maggots feed only on diseased and dead tissue or, more seri- ously, it may involve species that are obligate parasites and feed on the living tissues of their hosts (Hall, 1991). Many fly species are synanthropic i.e. they form close associations with humans. Livestock is an essential subsector in an agrarian economy like Pakistan (Habib et al., 2013). Traumatic myiasis is caused by synan- thropic flies is not only a serious medical condition in humans but ∗ Corresponding author. E-mail addresses: fatima.bu14@gmail.com, hira@grel.ist.edu.pk (S.H. Fatima). is also a welfare and economic issue among livestock (Hall et al., 2015). The distribution of myiasis is worldwide, with more cases being reported from tropical, subtropical, and warm temperate areas (Delir et al., 1999). Temperature and precipitation are crucial fac- tors in analyzing the effective environment of these species. Based on climatic variations three species are mostly prevalent in Africa and Eurasia i.e Chrysomyia bezziana, Lucilia cuprina and Wohlfahrtia magnifica (Rafinejad et al., 2014; Ready et al., 2009; Williams et al., 2014). Among these C. bezziana and W. magnifica are obligate par- asites of humans, livestock, pets and many vertebrate species. Chrysomya bezziana is a member of calliphoridae. The female fly oviposits in wounds and body openings such as the nose, eyes and ears. After hatching, the maggots feed superficially on the epi- dermis and lymphatic exudates, using mouth-hooks to macerate the tissues and enzymes in the saliva and larval excreta to initiate extra intestinal digestion (Colebrook and Wall, 2004; Kokcam and http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.actatropica.2016.06.015 0001-706X/© 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.