Technological foresight model for the identification of business opportunities (TEFMIBO) David Gu ¨ emes Castorena, Geovanny Romero Rivera and Amado Villarreal Gonza ´lez Abstract Purpose – The objective of this study is to provide a support tool for managers to identify future business opportunities. Design/methodology/approach – The proposed model consists of eight-steps. For the first step the authors propose two studies: trends analysis and change drivers’ identification; these help to identify the most relevant trends in areas that may affect the business activities. All this information is put into a Delphi process with the help of experts in order to find the common denominator of where the future is going; afterwards, with this information, the authors can build events and scenarios for the business opportunities. Then, a diagnostic of the study area, sector or organization through the dynamic diagnostic methods is performed. Findings – Once the opportunities have been identified, a strategic analysis that allows decision making to prioritize and define the activities or projects that may be achievable in the future is done, and the result of the process is a portfolio of business opportunities projects fully defined and ready to be planned with a roadmap. Originality/value – The proposed model allows the managers to consistently organize their development processes targeted to real business opportunities. Keywords Trends, Technologyforesight, Business opportunity, Change drivers, Delphi, Scenarios, Technology roadmap Paper type Research paper 1. Introduction If the companies work with resources allocated for evaluation and planning for the future, it is likely that most of them remain highly efficient and successful. Companies need to understand the future of their business environment in order to remain competitive and to ensure their sustainability. Technology planning aims eventually to obtain the portfolio opportunities, but it is important to know that planning is used to make decisions, and foresight is an effective way to facilitate the identification of business opportunities. Technology Foresight is a planning tool that allows building technology probabilities of occurrence and influence to achieve a desirable future and propose possible futures based on the feasibility of the technology and its commercialization; for most organizations, it is translated on future product lines and services targeted to future consumer’s needs. However, it considers that there are still a lot of problems with the application of foresight, since it lacks a solid methodological basis, a wide acceptance, and it usually has a low level of dissemination of results and poor integration of all activities. For this reason, this research paper develops a methodology for technology foresight in order to achieve better implementation and to overcome the above problems. The methodology aims to identify opportunities for technology based business to generate productive and economic development, and also generate a vision of potential efficiency and sustainability. With the Technological Foresight Model for the Identification of Business Opportunities (TEFMIBO) PAGE 492 j foresight j VOL. 15 NO. 6 2013, pp. 492-516, Q Emerald Group Publishing Limited, ISSN 1463-6689 DOI 10.1108/FS-10-2012-0076 David Gu ¨ emes Castorena, Geovanny Romero Rivera, Amado Villarreal Gonza ´lez are based at the Instituto Tecnolo ´gico y de Estudios Superiores de Monterrey, Monterrey, Nuevo Leo ´n, Mexico. The authors want to thank the Instituto Tecnolo ´gico y de Estudios Superiores de Monterrey (ITESM), Monterrey Campus, and the Regional Development Chair of EGAP (Graduate School in Public Administration and Public Politic) from ITESM for the contribution and support in conducting of this paper.