The Journal of Socio-Economics 38 (2009) 752–756
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The Journal of Socio-Economics
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/soceco
Risk behavior in decision-making in a multi-person-setting
Thomas Fenzl
*
, Thomas Brudermann
University of Klagenfurt, Institute of Psychology, Department of Economic Psychology, Universitätsstraße 65-67, A-9020 Klagenfurt, Austria
article info
Article history:
Received 26 November 2008
Received in revised form 11 June 2009
Accepted 17 June 2009
JEL classification:
28.002 Z2 (Economic Psychology)
4.008 D81 (Criteria for Decision-Making
under Risk and Uncertainty)
Keywords:
Risk behavior
Uncertainty
Decision-making
Multi-person-setting
Other-directed
abstract
When people have to make a choice in an individual setting between a known-risk option and an untested
situation of uncertainty, the majority prefers the known risk over the uncertainty of the alternative. The
confrontation with an unfamiliar situation in an environment including other participants allows for new
mechanisms in risk-perception and risk-evaluation. People tend to become other-directed and use the
behavior and consequences of actions of other people in the environment to assess risk. Our investigations
show that warning signals observable in the behavior of other participants in the setting reinforce people’s
preference for known risks over uncertainty.
© 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
1. Introduction
The current global crisis causes the largest transformation since
more than 80 years and comes along with uncertainty and dis-
orientation. Previously set standards, structures and norms are
replaced and revolutionary economic processes are being accel-
erated. Within this new framework people have to make choices
between several alternatives, some including known risks, oth-
ers containing unknown and untested ventures accompanied by
highest uncertainty. How do people cope with such risks and uncer-
tainty represented by novel decision-making situations?
Human risk behavior has to a great extent been studied as
individual cognitive process in which individuals collect and pro-
cess information to form their decisions and actions. We present
a field experiment that allowed for new mechanisms in risk-
perception and risk-evaluation, as participants were confronted
with an unfamiliar situation in a multi-person-setting. The find-
ings are discussed with respect to economic decision-making in
situations of uncertainty.
2. Related work
When it comes to decision-making under uncertainty, familiar-
ity often cuts out all other factors of orientation. In an experiment
*
Corresponding author. Tel.: +43 676 7362 381; fax: +43 463 2700 1626.
E-mail address: Thomas.Fenzl@uni-klu.ac.at (T. Fenzl).
Alter and Oppenheimer (2008) showed that the estimation of
the value, which participants attached to certain assets or items,
depended crucially on their familiarity with it. Pulford and Colman
(2008) have shown in their recent investigations that decision-
makers prefer known-risk situations over unknown alternatives
irrespective of the degree of uncertainty in the untested options. As
in the illustration of the Ellsberg paradox (1961) several urns were
filled with balls of two different colors in various distributions. In an
individual setting a participant had to choose between a known-risk
option, an urn containing 50 balls of each color randomly mixed,
and a situation of uncertainty, an urn with an unknown distribution
of balls of each color, for a blind drawing of a ball of a specified color.
Drawing the specified color entered participants into a lottery with
the chance of winning one of three £30 prizes. In this experiment
more than 70% of the 149 undergraduate students and members
of the general public chose the known-risk option. Pulford and Col-
man furthermore found that urn size had no statistically significant
impact on the preference of the known-risk option over the situ-
ation of uncertainty. In their conclusions they stated that purely
cognitive models do not give a full explanation of people’s behavior
in such situations and they suggest taking affective processes into
account.
These kinds of experiments however do not direct enough atten-
tion towards the fact that in real life, for example in markets,
people are embedded in an environment that includes other peo-
ple and therefore are subject to social influence. Even if individuals
sometimes decide independently based on available facts and fun-
damental data, there is a wide variety of situations where they
1053-5357/$ – see front matter © 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.socec.2009.06.001