FIONA MacPHAIL MOVING BEYOND STATISTICAL VALIDITY IN ECONOMICS * 1. INTRODUCTION Despite the wide use of economic indicators, general methodologi- cal discussions of their validity, or systematic discussions of validity theory in which types of validity are defined and evaluated, do not occur within Economics. For example, a literature search conducted on the Journal of Economic Literature CD Rom data base, using the key word ‘validity’, generated about 800 articles where validity was present in the title or abstract. 1 Based upon a review of the titles, however, there was not a single article providing a comprehensive analysis of the meaning of validity and its role in economic analysis. Further, the term validity is not an entry in the New Palgrave Dic- tionary of Economics, nor is it present in the index of a sample of standard econometrics textbooks. Although methodological analyses of validity are lacking in Eco- nomics, the term ‘validity’ is used in the applied and theoretical economics literature. In applied economics, validity tends to be equated with the accuracy or ‘truthfulness’ of results. In assessing the empirical validity of results, economists give high priority to statistical analysis. 2 In other social sciences, in contrast to Economics, validity is care- fully defined and the historical evolution of the notion of validity has been analyzed (see, for example, Hubley and Zumbo, 1996). An illustrative definition of validity is provided by Messick (1993: p. 13), who in the context of educational measurement, states that validity is “an integrated evaluative judgment of the degree to which empirical evidence and theoretical rationales support the ade- quacy and appropriateness of inferences and actions based upon test scores or other modes of assessment.” 3 Validity of inferences drawn Social Indicators Research 45: 119–149, 1998. © 1998 Kluwer Academic Publishers. Printed in the Netherlands.