* Corresponding author. Atmospheric Environment 33 (1999) 633— 646 Anthropogenic NO  emissions in Asia in the period 1990 — 2020 John A. van Aardenne*, Gregory R. Carmichael, Hiram Levy II, David Streets, Leen Hordijk  Wageningen Center for Environment and Climate Studies, Wageningen Agricultural University, P.O. Box 9101, 6700 HB Wageningen, Netherlands  Center for Global and Regional Environmental Research and the Department of Chemical and Biochemical Engineering, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA, USA  Geophysical Fluids Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, USA  Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL, USA Received 2 June 1997; accepted 6 March 1998 Abstract Nitrogen oxides emissions in Asia during the period 1990 — 2020 due to anthropogenic activity are presented. These estimates are based on the RAINS-ASIA methodology (Foell et al., 1995, Acid Rain and Emission Reduction in Asia, World Bank), which includes a dynamic model for energy forecasts, and information on 6 energy sectors and 9 fuel types. The energy forecasts are combined with process emission factors to yield NO  emission estimates at the country level, the regional level, and on a 1 degree by 1 degree grid. In 1990 the total NO  emissions are estimated to be & 19 Tg NO  , with China (43%), India (18%) and Japan (13%) accounting for 75% of the total. Emissions by fuel are dominated by burning of hard coal and emissions by economic activity are dominated by the power, transport, and industrial sectors. These new estimates of NO  emissions are compared with those published by Hameed and Dignon (1988, Atmospheric Environ- ment 22, 441— 449) and Akimoto and Narita (1994, Atmospheric Environment 28, 213 — 225). Future emissions under a no- further-control scenario are also presented. During the period 1990—2020 the NO  emissions increase by 350%, to &86 Tg NO  . The increase in NO  emissions by sector and end-use varies between countries, but in all countries this increase is strongest in the power and transport sectors. These results highlight the dynamic nature of energy use in Asia, and the need to take the rapid growth in NO  emissions in Asia into account in studies of air pollution and atmospheric chemistry.  1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. Keywords: NO  emissions; Fossil fuels; Asia energy use; Transportation; Power sector 1. Introduction Asia is experiencing rapid economic and population growth. It is estimated that by the year 2010 over 4 bil- lion people will be living in eastern Asia and the Indian sub-continent. Additionally, these countries are experi- encing phenomenal economic expansion. For example, China has experienced 9.5% growth in its GDP between 1980 and 1990 while the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries have experienced 7% eco- nomic growth over the same period (Hoffman, 1994). This rapid growth in many Asia economies has resulted 1352-2310/99/$ — see front matter  1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. PII: S 1 3 5 2 - 2 3 1 0 ( 9 8 ) 0 0 1 1 0 - 1