Smoke, but No Fire? In Social Science, Focus on the Most Distinct Part Kamila Pieczara, Warwick University Yong-Soo Eun, Incheon National University ABSTRACT Causality in social science is hard to establish even through the finest compar- ative research. To ease the task of extracting causes from comparisons, we present the benefits of tracing particularities in any phenomenon under investigation. We intro- duce three real-world examples from 2011: British riots, worldwide anticapitalist pro- tests, and the highway crash near Taunton in southwestern England. Whereas all of these three examples have broad causes, we embark on the quest after specific factors. The Taunton accident can send a powerful message to social scientists, which is about the danger of making general statements in their explanations. Instead of saying much but explaining little, the merit of singling out the specific is substantial. As social scien- tists, when we are faced with “smoke” but no “fire,” let us then focus on the part that is distinct. We are suspicious of pretentiousness, of all the fad words that the social scientists have coined to avoid making themselves clear to ordinary mortals. I urged them to be natural. — William Zinsser (2006, 168) I n Britain in the summer of 2011, groups of disaffected youth took to the streets to demonstrate, and to loot. In the fall later that year, protesters in large numbers staged anticapitalist protests, in some cases camping in tents. Then during the Bonfire weekend in England, on November 4, on a southwestern highway, a massive pile-up occurred. The Bonfire weekend is a commemoration of the Guy Fawkes night. 1 At the popular level, it is celebrated in British towns and cities with displays of fireworks. As we shall soon realize, a display of fireworks was blamed for the Taunton high- way crash. In the British media, these three events were analysed in terms of “when,” “what” and “how” questions. Later, the experts said these events were, respectively, caused by lack of perspectives; cor- porate greed; the celebratory fireworks. These events produced chaos by bringing information that needed to be filtered and attached a certain causal weight. If political science research indeed has—or is to have—a “public role,” in the words of Robert Putnam (2003), we might want to learn from the daily news and harness its journalistic power for our scholarly wisdom. FOCUSING ON THE PART THAT IS DISTINCT “Smoke, but no fire” occurs when a factor of general character (smoke) acts as a potential explanation of the event under exam- ination. Fire is a true cause. To illustrate the difference between the two, consider a plane crash. Weather conditions, if they were bad, probably will be later referred to in early analysis as a poten- tial cause. By focusing on the most distinct part, we mean reversing the trend of first searching for a general or plausible explanation. Instead, we propose to distinguish first any features of a phenom- enon that we are going to explain. This methodological step pushes the explanation in new directions. This exercise reverses the knowl- edge advanced by theorists such as Kenneth Waltz in his book Theory of International Politics (1979). When a goal is different, then a tool and a method need to be different, too. What we pro- pose is Waltz (1979) inverted. The ability to discern timeless pat- terns in the social environment is highly prized in academia, but of less use to those who need to explain a particular event. 2 The focus is on the most distinct part in any phenomenon needing explanation. The social crisis was a broad background of the August 2011 riots in British cities.Yet, what distinguishes these from similar cases is the stealing of expensive brand goods. Then demonstrations in locations across the world, known as the “Occupy Wall Street” movement, present a true laboratory for international comparison, as they took place in 82 countries. Gen- eralizing is not the most interesting part here; instead, in our method of comparison, let us focus on the parts that are distinct. This allows us to explain the features distinguishing these events. The theme of the protests was essentially the same around the world, but every nation protested differently; these specifics are Kamila Pieczara is a PhD candidate in politics and international studies at Warwick University. She is also a member of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). She can be reached at k.pieczara@warwick.ac.uk. Yong-Soo Eun is assistant professor of political science and international studies at Incheon National University in South Korea. He can be reached at yseun@incheon.ac.kr. Features ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. doi:10.1017/S104909651300156X © American Political Science Association, 2014 PS • January 2014 145